We have been slowly building a Premier League simulator. To do this we first needed to work out a relationship between two team's form and their chances of beating each other, before moving our focus to the Championship and calculating how much weaker than the Premiership it is. All this was enabled by our comprehensive database giving us results and odds for all Premier League games from the 2004/05 season to the 2013/14 season.
by Adrian Worton
We have been slowly building a Premier League simulator. To do this we first needed to work out a relationship between two team's form and their chances of beating each other, before moving our focus to the Championship and calculating how much weaker than the Premiership it is. All this was enabled by our comprehensive database giving us results and odds for all Premier League games from the 2004/05 season to the 2013/14 season.
1 Comment
by Adrian Worton
Yesterday we found equations which accurately create odds for Premiership matches. To do this we used the form of each team over the last 38 matches as a measure of strength to influence our model. However, this won't work for matches involving clubs recently promoted from the Championship, since clearly 3 points are harder to earn in the Premiership than the Championship. So in this article, we aim to get an exact measure of how much stronger the Premier League actually is. by Adrian Worton
As we have created a thoroughly detailed collection of Premier League data, which includes odds and results, we can look into recreating our work on the World Cup, and create a relationship to predict odds in the Premier League. by Adrian Worton
Following the success of the World Cup simulator we built in May & June, the next logical step is to find a new competition to work on. by Adrian Worton
During the build-up to the World Cup, we created the TGIAF World Cup Simulator, using odds from bookmakers. There were two key mechanisms which allowed us to do this - turning pre-existing odds into probabilities, and creating our own odds for fixtures which had yet to be scheduled (i.e. the knockout fixtures. Running the model multiple times allowed us to get an idea of the overall probabilities of certain events occurring, and allowed us to get an idea of which odds for the World Cup the bookies had underestimated, making them good value bets. by Adrian Worton
Yesterday we saw the permutations for the final round of fixtures in the World Cup, for groups A-D. Today, we will look at the remaining four groups. There is also an updated version of the TGIAF World Cup simulator, which can be found in Appendix 1. by Adrian Worton
The World Cup is in full swing now, and the final round of group matches begin on Monday. Over today and tomorrow we will go over each group, and explain what each team needs to do in order to qualify for the knockout rounds. by Adrian Worton
Introduction In the build up to the 2014 World Cup, we have introduced the TGIAF World Cup simulator, and last time we ran the simulator a thousand times in order to get an idea of the probabilities of each team reaching each stage. Placing our trust into these results, we can compare them to the bookies odds for various events in the tournament and find out which ones are good value to bet on, and which ones should be avoided. by Adrian Worton
Introduction Last week we unveiled the TGIAF simulator for the 2014 World Cup. Now, we are going to run our simulator a thousand times, and look at our eventual output. by Adrian Worton
Introduction This week, we have been building up to the creation of our World Cup simulator. Firstly, we showed how odds can be used to weight the random simulation of a match, such that each team has a probability of winning matching its ability. This allows us to simulate all the group matches at the World Cup. However, clearly we don't know the odds for all potential knock-out fixtures, so we also showed how to create a process which allows us to create odds for any two given teams. This means the mechanisms are all in place for us to create our simulator! In this article we will show how the simulator has been constructed. To download a version of the simulator, see Appendix 1. |
Author: Adrian
Doctor of Mathematics and former football analyst. Categories
All
Archives
April 2024
|