General Election 2017
Welcome to the TGIAF simulator for the 2017 General Election! At the bottom of the page you can find links to the articles where the methodology behind the simulator is explained.
Below are various widgets which allow you to explore the model we have created. The parties within the model, and their codes, are the Conservatives (CON), Labour (LAB), the Scottish National Party (SNP), the Liberal Democrats (LIB), the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Sinn Féin (SIN), Plaid Cymru (PLA), the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), the Green Party (GRE) and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). All other parties are represented by the Independents group (IND).
Below are various widgets which allow you to explore the model we have created. The parties within the model, and their codes, are the Conservatives (CON), Labour (LAB), the Scottish National Party (SNP), the Liberal Democrats (LIB), the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Sinn Féin (SIN), Plaid Cymru (PLA), the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), the Green Party (GRE) and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). All other parties are represented by the Independents group (IND).
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Seat totals
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Results map
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Constituency profile
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Party profile
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Seat totals
Below is a widget with the full results of the model. In order to generate a new simulation, simply type anything into the grey cell.
As part of the model, each party has a 'swing', where their chances of winning each seat are multiplied by a constant value - between 50% and 200%. This is currently set to be randomly picked, but you can manually set it by clicking on any cell in the 'Set Swing' column and picking from the drop-down list.
Below is a widget with the full results of the model. In order to generate a new simulation, simply type anything into the grey cell.
As part of the model, each party has a 'swing', where their chances of winning each seat are multiplied by a constant value - between 50% and 200%. This is currently set to be randomly picked, but you can manually set it by clicking on any cell in the 'Set Swing' column and picking from the drop-down list.
Results map
Here you can view the results of the model in map form. The results are calculated the same way as in the widget above. The map is proportional, with each constituency representing one cell. In order to generate a new simulation, simply type anything into any of the white cells.
Here you can view the results of the model in map form. The results are calculated the same way as in the widget above. The map is proportional, with each constituency representing one cell. In order to generate a new simulation, simply type anything into any of the white cells.
Constituency profile
If you are interested in looking at a specific constituency, you can select one from the drop-down list below. You will see its results in its most recent election, how we predicted its result in 2015, and predictions for the upcoming election.
If you are interested in looking at a specific constituency, you can select one from the drop-down list below. You will see its results in its most recent election, how we predicted its result in 2015, and predictions for the upcoming election.
Party profile
Here you can track a party of your choosing. Simply pick from the drop-down list, and you will see a graph showing how their expected seat count has changed during the build-up to the election, as well as a list of the seats they are most at-risk of losing, and the seats they are most likely to gain.
Here you can track a party of your choosing. Simply pick from the drop-down list, and you will see a graph showing how their expected seat count has changed during the build-up to the election, as well as a list of the seats they are most at-risk of losing, and the seats they are most likely to gain.
General Election 2017 articles
The return of the TGIAF Election model - the methodology of the model is explained, and some initial predictions are given.
How a Progressive Alliance can win (Introduction; south England; north England; Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland) - the model is used to recommend how a Progressive Alliance can best prevent a Conservative majority.
Vote shares - using a simple model based on the 2015 election, we look at what would happen should Labour pull level in the polls.
Election Live 2017 - ahead of our election night coverage we introduce the different ways we will be analysing the results as they come in.
Election Day Update - we look at the output of the model for the final time before the results come in. We also provide our dossier, a companion for those looking to follow the results as they come in.
Election review (Party predictions; Individual seats) - we look back at different elements of our model in order to see how our predictions fared, and what could be improved.
2017 Election Results - using PR - the full vote data is used to see how the election would have looked if a proportional system was in place.
The return of the TGIAF Election model - the methodology of the model is explained, and some initial predictions are given.
How a Progressive Alliance can win (Introduction; south England; north England; Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland) - the model is used to recommend how a Progressive Alliance can best prevent a Conservative majority.
Vote shares - using a simple model based on the 2015 election, we look at what would happen should Labour pull level in the polls.
Election Live 2017 - ahead of our election night coverage we introduce the different ways we will be analysing the results as they come in.
Election Day Update - we look at the output of the model for the final time before the results come in. We also provide our dossier, a companion for those looking to follow the results as they come in.
Election review (Party predictions; Individual seats) - we look back at different elements of our model in order to see how our predictions fared, and what could be improved.
2017 Election Results - using PR - the full vote data is used to see how the election would have looked if a proportional system was in place.