The TGIAF General Election 2015 Simulator
The articles at the end of this page provide the background on how this simulator has been calculated.
This is the TGIAF simulator for the 2015 UK general election, which occurred on the 7th of May. Simply type anything into the grey cell and hit enter to see a new result. 326 seats are required for a majority. You can also improve or weaken the chances of any party within the simulator by selecting a cell in the 'Set swing' column and picking a value from the drop-down list.
The letter codes refer to Conservatives (CON), Democratic Unionists (DUP), Greens (GRE), Labour (LAB), Liberal Democrats (LIB), Plaid Cymru (PLA), Respect (RES), Social & Democratic Labour (SDLP), Sinn Féin (SIN), Scottish National Party (SNP), United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and Ulster Unionist (UUP). All other parties and candidates are grouped under Independents (IND).
Odds last updated: 7th May, 6am.
This is the TGIAF simulator for the 2015 UK general election, which occurred on the 7th of May. Simply type anything into the grey cell and hit enter to see a new result. 326 seats are required for a majority. You can also improve or weaken the chances of any party within the simulator by selecting a cell in the 'Set swing' column and picking a value from the drop-down list.
The letter codes refer to Conservatives (CON), Democratic Unionists (DUP), Greens (GRE), Labour (LAB), Liberal Democrats (LIB), Plaid Cymru (PLA), Respect (RES), Social & Democratic Labour (SDLP), Sinn Féin (SIN), Scottish National Party (SNP), United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and Ulster Unionist (UUP). All other parties and candidates are grouped under Independents (IND).
Odds last updated: 7th May, 6am.
Below is a more visual representation of the results from the simulator, where each constituency has been given an equal size, following the example set by the BBC in 2010. Simply select any light grey cell, type anything and hit enter.
You can also see the individual probabilities for each constituency, simply pick from the drop-down list below:
Related articles
Modelling the General Election - the simulator is introduced, explaining how the probabilities for each seat are calculated.
TGIAF General Election Predictions - we run the simulator 1000 times, and see how many seats each party may expect to end up with.
March Update - the odds are updated, and we see how the parties have progressed in the intervening three months. A widget is also available allowing readers to select their own constituency and see which parties have the best chance there.
Who Can Decide the Election? - we alter the strength of parties within the model in order to see who holds the most power in swinging the lead from Labour to the Conservatives.
Target Seats (Labour, Conservatives, Greens) - using parties' hit-lists, we see how good parties are at knowing where they stand.
Learning from the Past - using odds from 2010 we modify our simulator to increase the chances of seat favourites winning.
Easter Update - the new model is used to make our latest predictions.
How to Beat the Bookies at Their Own Game - we use the updated model to see which bets will be the best value in the election.
Dissecting Scotland - we look at the seats in Scotland individually in order to get a breakdown of where the SNP is set to win its seats.
9 days to go - we study where each party currently lies and their trajectories. We do the same with a variety of potential coalitions, too.
Introducing: Election Live! - ahead of election night, we introducing Election Live, where we will be delivering the results with analysis provided by our model.
May Update - following an update of odds within the model, we see how the parties have changed, and which seats have caused that.
Marginal constituencies - we identify the seats which are the closest ahead of the election, and what potential scenarios each party could face.
Final Update - on the morning of the election the odds are updated to give final predictions. A document with details on all 650 seats is also published.
The Aftermath(ematics) - following the vote, we look back and see how our model performed.
Phinding Phi - we use the results of the election to see how our model could have been best configured.
Bring on the Swing - investigating whether the introduction of swing would have improved our predictions.
TGIAF General Election Predictions - we run the simulator 1000 times, and see how many seats each party may expect to end up with.
March Update - the odds are updated, and we see how the parties have progressed in the intervening three months. A widget is also available allowing readers to select their own constituency and see which parties have the best chance there.
Who Can Decide the Election? - we alter the strength of parties within the model in order to see who holds the most power in swinging the lead from Labour to the Conservatives.
Target Seats (Labour, Conservatives, Greens) - using parties' hit-lists, we see how good parties are at knowing where they stand.
Learning from the Past - using odds from 2010 we modify our simulator to increase the chances of seat favourites winning.
Easter Update - the new model is used to make our latest predictions.
How to Beat the Bookies at Their Own Game - we use the updated model to see which bets will be the best value in the election.
Dissecting Scotland - we look at the seats in Scotland individually in order to get a breakdown of where the SNP is set to win its seats.
9 days to go - we study where each party currently lies and their trajectories. We do the same with a variety of potential coalitions, too.
Introducing: Election Live! - ahead of election night, we introducing Election Live, where we will be delivering the results with analysis provided by our model.
May Update - following an update of odds within the model, we see how the parties have changed, and which seats have caused that.
Marginal constituencies - we identify the seats which are the closest ahead of the election, and what potential scenarios each party could face.
Final Update - on the morning of the election the odds are updated to give final predictions. A document with details on all 650 seats is also published.
The Aftermath(ematics) - following the vote, we look back and see how our model performed.
Phinding Phi - we use the results of the election to see how our model could have been best configured.
Bring on the Swing - investigating whether the introduction of swing would have improved our predictions.