World Cup 2018 Simulator
Welcome to the page for our World Cup 2018 simulator!
On this page you can run the simulator, as well as view the individual predictions for each team. At the bottom of the page is a list of articles relating to this simulator.
Firstly, the simulator itself. To run the simulator, type anything into the grey cell and hit enter.
To address a commonly-asked question - the percentages show each team's likelihood of winning in that match. The team highlighted in green has won. Obviously the favourite won't always win, because then there's no point in sport.
On this page you can run the simulator, as well as view the individual predictions for each team. At the bottom of the page is a list of articles relating to this simulator.
Firstly, the simulator itself. To run the simulator, type anything into the grey cell and hit enter.
To address a commonly-asked question - the percentages show each team's likelihood of winning in that match. The team highlighted in green has won. Obviously the favourite won't always win, because then there's no point in sport.
-
Start of tournament
-
Updated
<
>
Below is the simulator as it was just before the tournament started.
The version of the simulator has been updated the results from the tournament, with updated odds. We haven't updated the coefficients for each team, meaning that the knockout rounds will act the same way as in the pre-tournament model.
The latest update was on the 13th of July, after the semi-finals.
The latest update was on the 13th of July, after the semi-finals.
On the right you can look at the individual predictions for specific teams.
The cell at the top can be changed to any team in the tournament - either use the drop-down list or start typing the name of the team you wish to pick. The percentages are based on the results of 3000 runs of the simulator made just before the tournament started. |
|
World Cup 2018 simulator articles:
The TGIAF World Cup 2018 simulator - this article introduces the simulator and explains how it works.
Generating World Cup odds - a deeper study into how we developed the mechanism for generating each team's probabilities of victory in the knockout fixtures.
Three thousand World Cups - running the model 3000 times allows us to make predictions of each team's chances. This is what is used to populate the widget above.
World Cup value - using our probabilities, we have identified the best-value bets to make.
Group position likelihoods - updating the model after one round of games, we can see where there might be potential upsets.
Final group game update - we see what each team has to do in their final group match to get through to the second round.
Knockout round probabilities - ahead of the knockout rounds starting, we give each team's chances of winning and see whether England were right to finish second in their group.
Quarter-final update - updating the model after the first round of knockout fixtures, we see what effect that has had on the teams' chances.
The TGIAF World Cup 2018 simulator - this article introduces the simulator and explains how it works.
Generating World Cup odds - a deeper study into how we developed the mechanism for generating each team's probabilities of victory in the knockout fixtures.
Three thousand World Cups - running the model 3000 times allows us to make predictions of each team's chances. This is what is used to populate the widget above.
World Cup value - using our probabilities, we have identified the best-value bets to make.
Group position likelihoods - updating the model after one round of games, we can see where there might be potential upsets.
Final group game update - we see what each team has to do in their final group match to get through to the second round.
Knockout round probabilities - ahead of the knockout rounds starting, we give each team's chances of winning and see whether England were right to finish second in their group.
Quarter-final update - updating the model after the first round of knockout fixtures, we see what effect that has had on the teams' chances.