by Dr Adrian Worton
We are looking at how a Progressive Alliance (generally, parties opposed to hard Brexit) can prevent a Conservative majority. Last time we looked at the south of England, an area which is dominated by Conservative-held seats. This time, we look at the traditional Labour heartlands in the north of England.
We are looking at how a Progressive Alliance (generally, parties opposed to hard Brexit) can prevent a Conservative majority. Last time we looked at the south of England, an area which is dominated by Conservative-held seats. This time, we look at the traditional Labour heartlands in the north of England.
We will break this into separate regions to see how the Progressive Alliance (Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens) can work together to best effect. We have already determined that all-but 284 seats are safe, and we are now considering how the rest should be fought.
West Midlands
Total seats: 28
Safe seats: CON 7; LAB 5
West Midlands
Total seats: 28
Safe seats: CON 7; LAB 5
Of the 16 seats which we haven't classified as safe, all are held by Labour. Therefore, it is crucial that they retain as many as possible. With very little Lib Dem, and negligible Green, prospects in this area, Labour would hugely benefit from support from these parties in order to protect these seats. Labour should avoid falling into the trap of wasting resources on defending Birmingham Yardley; whilst it may fall to the Lib Dems, that is significantly better for Labour than losing the other seats to the Conservatives.
South Midlands (Bedfordshire, Northamptonshire, Warwickshire)
Total seats: 19
Safe seats: CON 15
South Midlands (Bedfordshire, Northamptonshire, Warwickshire)
Total seats: 19
Safe seats: CON 15
This area, just north of the Home Counties, shows a similar level of Conservative dominance. Labour currently hold both seats in Luton, and appear favourite, just, to hold those. They have a small chance in both Bedford and Corby, and with 14 seats too safe to bother wasting resources fighting, can put a lot of effort into trying to gain these seats. With virtually no Lib Dem and Green presence here, Labour may be able to gain support from voters of these parties.
East Anglia (Cambridgeshire, Norfolk, Suffolk)
Total seats: 23
Safe seats: CON 19
East Anglia (Cambridgeshire, Norfolk, Suffolk)
Total seats: 23
Safe seats: CON 19
As with the South Midlands, this is another tough Conservative-dominated area. Labour currently hold Cambridge and Norwich South, whilst the Lib Dems hold North Norfolk. It certainly appears that it is in the interests of Labour and the Lib Dems to support each other in Norwich South (for Labour) and North Norfolk (for the Lib Dems). Labour might as well throw a lot of local campaigners at Waveney, which currently appears a long shot, but represents the best chance here of taking a Conservative seat. In Cambridge a Lib-Lab collaboration isn't going to happen, but both parties need to avoid campaigning too hard here if they are going to retain their other seats in the region.
North West Midlands (Cheshire, Merseyside, Staffordshire)
Total seats: 38
Safe seats: CON 13; LAB 12
North West Midlands (Cheshire, Merseyside, Staffordshire)
Total seats: 38
Safe seats: CON 13; LAB 12
This area is much more even between the Conservatives and Labour, as it includes indisputably Labour's strongest area, Merseyside (all four Liverpool seats are safe Labour seats). Of the 13 seats realistically up-for-grabs, all are held by Labour except Southport (Lib Dem), Weaver Vale and Warrington South (both Conservative). It would be very sensible for Labour to avoid campaigning hard in Southport if they want the support of the Lib Dems in the other seats. The recent decline in UKIP's profile is particularly highlighted by their slim chances in Stoke-on-Trent Central, a seat considered to be sufficiently suited to them that leader Paul Nuttall stood there in a recent by-election.
East Midlands (Derbyshire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, Rutland)
Total seats: 39
Safe seats: CON 21; LAB 3
East Midlands (Derbyshire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, Rutland)
Total seats: 39
Safe seats: CON 21; LAB 3
Whilst Boston & Skegness is not considered a safe seat, since UKIP are likely to support the Conservatives in key issues, it might as well be in terms of Progressive Alliance calculations. A key seat here is Derby North, where Labour and the Lib Dems have a similar chance; an electoral pact would both increase the chances of the Conservative incumbent being unseated, but may also help in other seats. For example, Labour might allow a clear Lib Dem run in Derby North if the Lib Dems don't put huge pressure on Labour in Chesterfield, Ashfield and North East Derbyshire.
Lancashire (including Greater Manchester)
Total seats: 43
Safe seats: CON 7; LAB 4
Lancashire (including Greater Manchester)
Total seats: 43
Safe seats: CON 7; LAB 4
Lancashire represents the most open area of England, and could have a huge influence on the outcome of the election. In the graph above, all seats from Bury South downwards are Labour-held, with the exception of Rochdale, which is technically Independent, but was last won by Labour. Of the top seven on the graph, all are Conservative-held except Lancaster & Fleetwood, which is Labour. This means Labour have a lot to lose here, and will need help from the Greens, and may work tactically with the Lib Dems to gain their support in key seats. This might involve Labour not using many resources in defending Burnley, although this opens up the chances of the Conservatives stealing the seat if the Lib Dems don't capitalise. Heywood & Middleton represents the best constituency across the country for UKIP to take, although even there they are a third-favourite.
Yorkshire (Humberside, North Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire)
Total seats: 54
Safe seats: CON 17; LAB 4
Yorkshire (Humberside, North Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire)
Total seats: 54
Safe seats: CON 17; LAB 4
Yorkshire represents England's largest region in our analysis, and therefore, like rivals Lancashire, is also going to have a large influence on the election's result. All seats on the graph above are Labour-held, with the exceptions of Sheffield Hallam, Leeds North West (both Lib Dem), Morley & Outwood and Keighley (both Conservative). This is an area which Labour are by far the main challengers to the Conservatives, and as such may decide they don't need the support of the Lib Dems and Greens. However, with Labour being second-favourite in 9 seats here, 7 of which they hold, they could do with help. This means that Labour may elect to avoid challenging the Lib Dems in Sheffield Hallam and Leeds North West in order for Lib Dem support elsewhere. The Greens have been targeting Sheffield Central lately, with former leader Natalie Bennett standing there. Therefore they might offer support in other seats in return for Labour avoiding putting too many resources into protecting this seat.
North England (Cleveland, Cumbria, Durham, Northumberland, Tyne & Wear)
Total seats: 35
Safe seats: LAB 9; CON 4
North England (Cleveland, Cumbria, Durham, Northumberland, Tyne & Wear)
Total seats: 35
Safe seats: LAB 9; CON 4
The north east of England in particular has been seen as a Labour stronghold, and it looks as though they will maintain a majority of seats in this area. However, a narrow Conservative victory in the Tees Valley mayoral election this month has raised panic alarms. Of the seats here, Labour hold all except Westmorland & Lonsdale (Lib Dem), Copeland and Berwick-upon-Tweed (both Conservative). Copeland is a seat the Conservatives took at a by-election in February, and their majority was less than the votes for the Lib Dems. Therefore, this amplifies the need Labour have for Lib Dem support in seats such as these. Labour will need all the help they can get to keep seats such as Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland and Barrow & Furness, and so they may need to avoid using unnecessary resources on seats such as City of Durham and Redcar.
Conclusion
There are a huge number of seats up-for-grabs in the north of England, particularly in Yorkshire and Lancashire. With many places in this region voting for Brexit, Theresa May's hard Brexit strategy has given her party a chance to win a number of seats that previous would have been unthinkable a decade ago. It is in these areas that Labour will need to be creative in gaining support from other parties if they are to defend their strongest areas.
Conclusion
There are a huge number of seats up-for-grabs in the north of England, particularly in Yorkshire and Lancashire. With many places in this region voting for Brexit, Theresa May's hard Brexit strategy has given her party a chance to win a number of seats that previous would have been unthinkable a decade ago. It is in these areas that Labour will need to be creative in gaining support from other parties if they are to defend their strongest areas.