We are just three days away from the 2017 General Election (I know, it feels like the campaign has been going on forever), and some of you will be planning to stay up all night and follow the results as they come in.
Well, we are going to be covering the election live, as we did in 2015, on TGIAF! We will be using our 2017 General Election model to give predictions and to signify where the interesting results lie.
Using the final edition of our Election model we will be providing a guide to all 650 constituencies - containing the likelihoods of each party winning, which seats are likely to be the closest, and notable candidates. This will be provided in an article on election day, but you can also download it from our Election Live page.
On the Election Live page is a tab where you can view the latest tweets from our (all-new!) Twitter page. Feel free to send us tweets, and we'll try and reply, even during the mega-busy period from about 3pm onwards!
This tab contains all the main information our coverage is providing. So we'll run through the bits of it one-at-a-time:
However, we also use our model to do a few things:
- The 'Pred' column gives our pre-vote prediction of the final seat count.
- The 'Proj' column is our projection of how the results will go from the current state (this also dictates the order that the parties are listed).
- The 'Change' column is a measure of how well each party is doing compared to the pre-vote predictions.
You will see that Labour are in the lead in the example above - early on in the night you will likely see this happening, simply because Labour-held seats (for whatever reason) are often the earliest to call their results.
Recently announced results
The time given is when we entered the result into the model, rather than the time it was called.
As we collected this data in 2015, this has allowed us to give an estimate of when the seat should be called in our Dossier.
Note that the example above is Labour-heavy as the probabilities and results were taken from different editions of the model - on election night the latest probabilities will be used.
Expected next announcements
Projected seat count
Additionally, the graph to the left shows the projected seat counts (translucent), and how much of that each party has actually got so far (solid).
Like the BBC and others, we have a map displaying the results as they come in, scaled to be proportional so that each constituency is equally-sized. Seats are only coloured in when results are called.
You will, of course, be interested in your local seat. Well, we have the option to look at the details for a particular seat. By selecting your seat from the drop-down list you can find our prediction, made before voting, as well as a modified prediction to take the exit poll into account. If the seat has been called, the result will also be shown.
An example below shows Waveney in Suffolk for a hypothetical exit poll.
On the day before the vote (Wednesday the 7th of May), we will be testing the Election Live page by running a dummy election with randomly-generated results.
This will happen from 3pm, so if you are curious to see (a) how the page looks once results are underway, and (b) what happens in our generation, feel free to watch along!