General Election 2019

On this page you can explore our General Election 2019 Model. Click through the tabs below to investigate. The model is updated each morning.

At the bottom of this page is a directory of articles related to this model.

• Simulator
• Map
• Constituency
• Party

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As the model is build on probability, you can run a trial simulation using our in-built probabilities. Simple type anything into the dark grey cell below and hit enter.

You can also modify each party's performance in the model in the 'Set swing' column on the right. Pick a value from the drop-down list in this column, or leave it as 'Rand' for a random value between 50-200%.
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Below is a map visualisation of the simulator on the previous tab. To run a simulation, simply type anything into any of the blank cells and hit enter.
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Below you can select your constituency from the drop-down list below (the grey cell). You will see some background information, including our previous probabilities for that seat in 2015 and 2017. At the bottom you will find our current probabilities for that seat.

Here you can track the progress of each individual party in our model. The values given are the 'expected seat counts', which is that party's probability of winning each seat, summed.

Articles:
Early impressions - With only partial results available, we have a look at what we know so far and make tentative predictions.
Seat breakdowns (Northern Ireland, Wales, Scotland) - We look at the seats in each of the nations, seeing where the most exciting battles lie.
The TGIAF 2019 General Election Model - with odds for all seats available, we can give our first full predictions, giving expected seat totals for each party.
Independets' Day? - we go through the leading independents in the vote, assessing their chances of victory.
Tactical Voting Recommentations (part 1, part 2, part 3) - we assess tactical voting advice from the Observer, and give our own recommendations.