Last time we ran through the seats in Northern Ireland to kick off our General Election coverage. We still can't do the whole country as we only have data on 398 seats. However, like Northern Ireland, all 40 Welsh constituencies are covered, so we can delve into those.
In Northern Ireland, 9 seats (i.e. half) saw the incumbent favourite to win the seat with over a 99% probability. No such seats exist in Wales. This seems to be because the seats with the highest majority are all Labour-held, and the bookmakers generally do not seem favourite towards Labour.
Below are the seats where the incumbent has at least an 80% chance of retaining their seat:
Similarly, a 314 Conservative majority in Preseli Pembrokeshire gives a 89.8% chance of victory, compared to 89.3% in Ogmore, where Labour's majority last time was 13,871.
Assuming these seats are indeed held, this gives Labour 17 seats, the Conservatives 4 and Plaid 3.
Next up are the seats where the favourite has more than 60% chance of winning the seat:
Aberconwy is listed as Independent, but the Conservatives won it at the last election; since then the MP (Guto Bebb) had the whip removed.
Montgomeryshire has long been a two-way battle between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, and with the latter surely set to improve from their terrible showings in 2015 and 2017, they may make this a closer contest, although they are second-favourites here. They are fancied to claim Ceredigion from Plaid, who in turn may take Ynys Mon from Labour.
Of a list of 8 constituencies, 5 of which are currently held by Labour, they are predicted to only keep one: Bridgend.
Now onto the seats where the favourite has less than 60% chance of winning:
Contrary to the figures shown above, Vale of Glamorgan should be a Conservative hold. An error on the site we get our values has the Lib Dems listed as 1/200, very generous given that they aren't standing in this seat.
The remaining six seats - all Labour held - are all roughly neck-and-neck. Given that the final vote will almost-certainly see a swing towards one party or the other, it is likely that all six will be won by the same party.
Ignoring the marginal seats listed above, Labour are favourites in 18 seats and the Conservatives in 10. It doesn't seem out of the question that the Conservatives will roughly equal Labour's seats tally in Wales, although Labour are favourites to take the most seats. In an area that is traditionally very Labour, these values represent the concerns surrounding Labour's ability to get votes in its traditional heartland.
Next time we'll look at Scotland. No prizes for guessing who the best-performing party will be there, but instead it is worth asking - how well will the SNP do?