We have looked at the state of play in Northern Ireland and Wales, and now we move onto Scotland. We are still waiting for data on all 650 constituencies, but we are now up to 545, so hopefully we'll have a full model available soon.
These are the seats where the favourite has over 90% chance of winning. This covers 30 seats, over half:
The one seat of note here is Rutherglen & Hamilton West. Labour took this from the SNP last time with a narrow majority of 265, it is amazing that the SNP have a 91.4% chance of reclaiming it. A bad sign for Labour...
These are seats where the favourite has between 80-90% chance of winning:
Similarly, it would be a huge surprise if the Conservatives lost Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale given that that was their only Scottish constituency from 2005-2017. The neighbouring constituency Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk is also expected to stay blue, as is West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine.
The Lib Dems have a 84.5% chance of retaining East Dunbartonshire, which is fortunate as it's the seat of their leader Jo Swinson, and a 80.9% chance of keeping Edinburgh West.
But again, it's the SNP that are in good positions as they expect to retain the 5 seats shown above that they already hold, and are in good shape to win 4 seats from Labour (including Gordon Brown's former seat of Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath) and my former constituency Stirling from the Conservatives.
These are the seats where the favourite has a 70-80% chance of winning:
The Lib Dems will look to hold off the SNP in another seat - Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross, whilst the remaining three seats see the SNP favourites to take a trio of seats from the Conservatives.
Finally, to the seats where the favourite has less than 60% chance of winning (no seat has anyone between 60-70%):
East Lothian is an exciting three-way marginal. Poor old Labour are third-favourites for a seat they won with a 3,083 majority in 2017, whilst the SNP are favourites as they stand former Scottish Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill.
Three Conservative-held seats see the incumbents and the SNP dead even in the odds. In 2017 Moray and Gordon each saw a high-profile SNP figure ousted by the Conservatives (Angus Robertson and Alex Salmond). The SNP are now fielding a lesser-known name in these seats, whether or not that will be a help or hindrance we will find out.
The 2015 General Election in Scotland highlighted the inadequacies of first-past-the-post. The SNP won 50.0% of the vote, but took 94.9% of seats. This was happened after the Scottish Independence referendum split the electorate, with the 'No' vote split between three parties, but the 'Yes' vote held intact.
In 2017 the SNP vote dipped, as the post-referendum momentum stalled. But the SNP still took 59.3% of seats from 36.9% of the vote, due to the same vote-splitting as in the previous election.
It seems that this election will surely see the SNP do somewhere in-between their 2015 and 2017 performances. They are favourites in 43 seats, not including the ones labelled as marginal in the list above. It is entirely plausible they could take all 7 of these marginal seats, meaning the SNP will have at least 50 seats in the next parliament.