by Dr Adrian Worton
This week, we have been looking at key constituencies where tactical voting may be key to denying the Conservatives victory (part 1, part 2). We used our own model results, but also heavily relied on YouGov's detailed MRP model.
This model was last updated on the 27th of November, but last night YouGov published an updated version. Therefore, we are going to revisit the seats we focused on in our previous two articles to make sure our tactical voting advice is up-to-date.
This week, we have been looking at key constituencies where tactical voting may be key to denying the Conservatives victory (part 1, part 2). We used our own model results, but also heavily relied on YouGov's detailed MRP model.
This model was last updated on the 27th of November, but last night YouGov published an updated version. Therefore, we are going to revisit the seats we focused on in our previous two articles to make sure our tactical voting advice is up-to-date.
This time, we are not going to refer to our own model's probabilities, as it doesn't seem to have altered yet to reflect the overnight MRP probabilities.
We are going to focus on the 22 seats we featured in-depth last time. The seats where it appeared to be a simple two-horse race (which we just listed without going into any explanation) we expect will still be the same, but we've put them at the bottom of the article anyway.
So, to the remaining seats:
We are going to focus on the 22 seats we featured in-depth last time. The seats where it appeared to be a simple two-horse race (which we just listed without going into any explanation) we expect will still be the same, but we've put them at the bottom of the article anyway.
So, to the remaining seats:

Argyll & Bute
This seat remains much the same as before, with only two parties realistically in with a chance here.
Again, the SNP are favourites, but they would be strongly aided by Liberal Democrat and Labour voters switching over to ensure the Conservatives don't steal this seat.
TGIAF recommendation: SNP
This seat remains much the same as before, with only two parties realistically in with a chance here.
Again, the SNP are favourites, but they would be strongly aided by Liberal Democrat and Labour voters switching over to ensure the Conservatives don't steal this seat.
TGIAF recommendation: SNP

Ashfield
The Conservatives retain a lead in this seat, whilst the Ashfield Independent threat appears to be far overstated.
The issue for Labour here is that there is very little vote share for the Lib Dems and Greens to help them challenge, whilst Brexit Party & Ashfield Independent supporters are more likely to lend their vote to the Conservatives.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour
The Conservatives retain a lead in this seat, whilst the Ashfield Independent threat appears to be far overstated.
The issue for Labour here is that there is very little vote share for the Lib Dems and Greens to help them challenge, whilst Brexit Party & Ashfield Independent supporters are more likely to lend their vote to the Conservatives.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour

Battersea
The Conservative vote share has held steady here, the big chance has been that Lib Dem and Green voters have shifted to Labour.
This has lead to this becoming a 'safe' seat under YouGov's definitions.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour
The Conservative vote share has held steady here, the big chance has been that Lib Dem and Green voters have shifted to Labour.
This has lead to this becoming a 'safe' seat under YouGov's definitions.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour

Beaconsfield
Independent Dominic Grieve has seen a very minor boost in this seat, but he still appears a long way from challenging.
The Conservatives remain on over 50%, so no amount of tactical voting may be enough.
TGIAF recommendation: Dominic Grieve
Independent Dominic Grieve has seen a very minor boost in this seat, but he still appears a long way from challenging.
The Conservatives remain on over 50%, so no amount of tactical voting may be enough.
TGIAF recommendation: Dominic Grieve

Broxtowe
Since last time Labour have crept up slightly, at the expense of Change UK's Anna Soubry.
This seat is clearly a two-horse race.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour
Since last time Labour have crept up slightly, at the expense of Change UK's Anna Soubry.
This seat is clearly a two-horse race.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour

Chelsea & Fulham
There's been little-to-no change in this seat, which means neither the Lib Dems or Labour have closed the gap to the Conservatives.
The Lib Dems remain better-placed here, and there is certainly enough Labour vote share here to push the Lib Dems into serious contention.
TGIAF recommendation: Liberal Democrats
There's been little-to-no change in this seat, which means neither the Lib Dems or Labour have closed the gap to the Conservatives.
The Lib Dems remain better-placed here, and there is certainly enough Labour vote share here to push the Lib Dems into serious contention.
TGIAF recommendation: Liberal Democrats

Cities of London & Westminster
Last time, YouGov had Labour and Lib Dems neck-and-neck. It now appears the Lib Dems have poked ahead, and have thus made this seat a little less safe for the Conservatives.
This shows the power of tactical voting, and a bit more from Labour supporters could see a big shock here.
TGIAF recommendation: Liberal Democrats
Last time, YouGov had Labour and Lib Dems neck-and-neck. It now appears the Lib Dems have poked ahead, and have thus made this seat a little less safe for the Conservatives.
This shows the power of tactical voting, and a bit more from Labour supporters could see a big shock here.
TGIAF recommendation: Liberal Democrats

East Devon
This really could be the story of the election. Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters have all shifted en mass to independent Claire Wright, and she is almost tied with the Conservatives here.
You'd think that whoever loses in this seat will have the highest losing vote share in the country.
TGIAF recommendation: Claire Wright
This really could be the story of the election. Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters have all shifted en mass to independent Claire Wright, and she is almost tied with the Conservatives here.
You'd think that whoever loses in this seat will have the highest losing vote share in the country.
TGIAF recommendation: Claire Wright

East Lothian
We highlighted this seat before, as we had an issue with the Observer picking this seat as a key tactical vote constituency, when the Conservatives were in third. It felt unfair to Labour to ask their voters to shift to the SNP, when this is currently a contest between Labour & SNP.
This remains the same, except Labour are now judged to be in the lead. This validates our criticism of the Observer's own tactics.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour OR SNP
We highlighted this seat before, as we had an issue with the Observer picking this seat as a key tactical vote constituency, when the Conservatives were in third. It felt unfair to Labour to ask their voters to shift to the SNP, when this is currently a contest between Labour & SNP.
This remains the same, except Labour are now judged to be in the lead. This validates our criticism of the Observer's own tactics.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour OR SNP

Finchley & Golders Green
This seat saw both Lib Dems and Labour just behind the Conservatives. That gap has now been dramatically widened, with the Conservatives looking on course for around 50% of the vote.
It's extremely hard to see how this seat, with its particular sensibilities, will resolve in enough tactical voting to see someone else win, but the Lib Dems do appear to be marginally better-placed.
TGIAF recommendation: Liberal Democrats
This seat saw both Lib Dems and Labour just behind the Conservatives. That gap has now been dramatically widened, with the Conservatives looking on course for around 50% of the vote.
It's extremely hard to see how this seat, with its particular sensibilities, will resolve in enough tactical voting to see someone else win, but the Lib Dems do appear to be marginally better-placed.
TGIAF recommendation: Liberal Democrats

Kensington
The Observer was encouraging Labour voters to back former Conservative minister Sam Gyimah here. Thankfully, they haven't listened and Labour are now marginally ahead of the Conservatives here.
This is effectively a two-horse race here, and Lib Dem voters could win it for Labour.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour
The Observer was encouraging Labour voters to back former Conservative minister Sam Gyimah here. Thankfully, they haven't listened and Labour are now marginally ahead of the Conservatives here.
This is effectively a two-horse race here, and Lib Dem voters could win it for Labour.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour

Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
The SNP candidate here has had all support withdrawn by his party in light of antisemitic and transphobic comments. This has lead to Labour pulling away in this seat.
The Conservatives aren't very close in this, the former seat of former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, but tactical voting can always make sure.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour
The SNP candidate here has had all support withdrawn by his party in light of antisemitic and transphobic comments. This has lead to Labour pulling away in this seat.
The Conservatives aren't very close in this, the former seat of former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, but tactical voting can always make sure.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour

Lanark & Hamilton East
Labour appear to have made some ground in this seat, at the expense of the SNP. As a result, the Conservatives are now favourites for the seat.
Labour still appear a clear third-favourite for the seat, so the SNP are the clear challengers to the Conservatives here.
TGIAF recommendation: SNP
Labour appear to have made some ground in this seat, at the expense of the SNP. As a result, the Conservatives are now favourites for the seat.
Labour still appear a clear third-favourite for the seat, so the SNP are the clear challengers to the Conservatives here.
TGIAF recommendation: SNP

Luton South
Here, Labour have pulled away, whilst the Conservative vote has dipped. Independent Gavin Shuker has also seen a slight increase.
This makes this a fairly likely Labour win now. Shuker certainly can't win, although it's not clear if his support is from anti-Labour or anti-Conservative voters.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour
Here, Labour have pulled away, whilst the Conservative vote has dipped. Independent Gavin Shuker has also seen a slight increase.
This makes this a fairly likely Labour win now. Shuker certainly can't win, although it's not clear if his support is from anti-Labour or anti-Conservative voters.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour

Midlothian
Again, this seat appeared to be a battle between the SNP and Labour, but the Observer felt the need to recommend voters went with the SNP, ostensibly because of the Conservative threat.
This threat hasn't materialised, and as with East Lothian, SNP and Labour voters shouldn't be expected to switch due to tactics.
TGIAF recommendation: SNP OR Labour
Again, this seat appeared to be a battle between the SNP and Labour, but the Observer felt the need to recommend voters went with the SNP, ostensibly because of the Conservative threat.
This threat hasn't materialised, and as with East Lothian, SNP and Labour voters shouldn't be expected to switch due to tactics.
TGIAF recommendation: SNP OR Labour

Putney
The Lib Dem vote has drifted to Labour in this seat, making this a clear two-horse race, and pushing Labour into a marginal favourite's position.
As always, further support for the challenger to the Conservatives will only help.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour
The Lib Dem vote has drifted to Labour in this seat, making this a clear two-horse race, and pushing Labour into a marginal favourite's position.
As always, further support for the challenger to the Conservatives will only help.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour

Rushcliffe
The Observer recommended Labour as the tactical vote here, although we thought it was unnecessary as it appeared to be a safe Conservative hold.
However, with a big decrease in the Lib Dem vote, Labour are within touching distance, so one more push will make this one interesting.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour
The Observer recommended Labour as the tactical vote here, although we thought it was unnecessary as it appeared to be a safe Conservative hold.
However, with a big decrease in the Lib Dem vote, Labour are within touching distance, so one more push will make this one interesting.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour

Sheffield Hallam
Again, this seat always appeared to be a battle between the Lib Dems & Labour. For the Observer to recommend one (Lib Dems) because of a supposed Conservative threat was entirely unnecessary.
To emphasise this, Labour have closed the gap here, and it's unfair on both parties and their activists to pick one over the other.
TGIAF recommendation: Liberal Democrats OR Labour
Again, this seat always appeared to be a battle between the Lib Dems & Labour. For the Observer to recommend one (Lib Dems) because of a supposed Conservative threat was entirely unnecessary.
To emphasise this, Labour have closed the gap here, and it's unfair on both parties and their activists to pick one over the other.
TGIAF recommendation: Liberal Democrats OR Labour

South Cambridgeshire
We brought this seat up last time, as we felt that Labour support moving to the Lib Dems could make them real challengers in this seat.
Well, that appears to be what has happened, and the Lib Dems are now marginal favourites. It's not over yet, but it's promising.
TGIAF recommendation: Liberal Democrats
We brought this seat up last time, as we felt that Labour support moving to the Lib Dems could make them real challengers in this seat.
Well, that appears to be what has happened, and the Lib Dems are now marginal favourites. It's not over yet, but it's promising.
TGIAF recommendation: Liberal Democrats

South West Hertfordshire
As with Beaconsfield, a prominent ex-Conservative minister stands as an independent.
David Gauke hasn't really closed the gap on his former party here, although he is the only one who has any chance at all.
TGIAF recommendation: David Gauke
As with Beaconsfield, a prominent ex-Conservative minister stands as an independent.
David Gauke hasn't really closed the gap on his former party here, although he is the only one who has any chance at all.
TGIAF recommendation: David Gauke

Southport
This seat has seen Labour make a modest gain, although they are still struggling to get close to the Conservatives.
The Lib Dems appear to have fallen away a bit, and by changing would make a real difference here.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour
This seat has seen Labour make a modest gain, although they are still struggling to get close to the Conservatives.
The Lib Dems appear to have fallen away a bit, and by changing would make a real difference here.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour

Wimbledon
This seat, as it did before, had both the Lib Dems and Labour jostling for 2nd place, but with the Conservatives out in front.
As then, the Lib Dems have the edge. Whilst Labour will feel as if they're in with a chance, the reality is that the Lib Dems are most likely right now, and if there's no recommendation then it's a certain Conservative win.
TGIAF recommendation: Liberal Democrats
This seat, as it did before, had both the Lib Dems and Labour jostling for 2nd place, but with the Conservatives out in front.
As then, the Lib Dems have the edge. Whilst Labour will feel as if they're in with a chance, the reality is that the Lib Dems are most likely right now, and if there's no recommendation then it's a certain Conservative win.
TGIAF recommendation: Liberal Democrats

Ynys Mon
With no Lib Dem or Green candidates, this is a violently close three-horse race. The fear here is that Brexit Party votes shift to the Conservatives.
It's very hard to tell either Labour or Plaid Cymru supporters to move away from their party when it's so close. Labour have the edge, but both are currently ahead of the Conservatives.
TGIAF recommendation: none
With no Lib Dem or Green candidates, this is a violently close three-horse race. The fear here is that Brexit Party votes shift to the Conservatives.
It's very hard to tell either Labour or Plaid Cymru supporters to move away from their party when it's so close. Labour have the edge, but both are currently ahead of the Conservatives.
TGIAF recommendation: none

York Outer
Labour have done a great job of closing down the Conservatives in a seat that YouGov had initially rated as 'safe' Conservative.
The gap between the two is smaller than the Lib Dem vote share here, so tactical voting could lead to this being a major upset.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour
Labour have done a great job of closing down the Conservatives in a seat that YouGov had initially rated as 'safe' Conservative.
The gap between the two is smaller than the Lib Dem vote share here, so tactical voting could lead to this being a major upset.
TGIAF recommendation: Labour
Conclusion
The full YouGov MRP model has the Conservatives on 339 seats. That's a healthy-ish majority, but it's notably down from their November update.
The seats we've highlighted (including the ones listed in previous updates, where the challenger is obvious) are the ones that will make the difference. If voters receive the best information on who to vote for, they can make an educated decision. The main issue this election has been misleading party information, with each party claiming they are the best challengers in almost every seat.
Obviously, it's foolish to take a party's word for it, but this is the most direct information most people receive. There has been an unprecedented effort to organise tactical voting for this election, and it might just help mitigate the disaster that is first-past-the-post.
The full YouGov MRP model has the Conservatives on 339 seats. That's a healthy-ish majority, but it's notably down from their November update.
The seats we've highlighted (including the ones listed in previous updates, where the challenger is obvious) are the ones that will make the difference. If voters receive the best information on who to vote for, they can make an educated decision. The main issue this election has been misleading party information, with each party claiming they are the best challengers in almost every seat.
Obviously, it's foolish to take a party's word for it, but this is the most direct information most people receive. There has been an unprecedented effort to organise tactical voting for this election, and it might just help mitigate the disaster that is first-past-the-post.
Appendix: Two-horse races
These are the seats where the challenger is obvious, but they may need tactical voting from other parties to get them over the line. Here they are, grouped by the party to vote for:
Labour: Aberconwy, Alyn & Deeside, Barrow & Furness, Bassetlaw, Bedford, Birmingham Edgbaston, Birmingham Erdington, Birmingham Northfield, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Blyth Valley, Bolsover, Bolton North East, Bradford South, Bridgend, Brighton Kemptown, Bristol North West, Burnley, Bury North, Bury South, Calder Valley, Canterbury, Cardiff North, Chesterfield, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Clwyd South, Colne Valley, Corby, Coventry North West, Coventry South, Crewe & Nantwich, Croydon Central, Dagenham & Rainham, Darlington, Delyn, Derby North, Dewsbury, Don Valley, Eltham, Enfield Southgate, Filton & Bradley Stoke, Gedling, Gower, Great Grimsby, Halifax, Harrow East, Hartlepool, Hastings & Rye, Hemsworth, Hendon, Heywood & Middleton, High Peak, Hyndburn, Ipswich, Keighley, Kingston upon Hull West & Hessle, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Leigh, Lincoln, Loughborough, Milton Keynes North, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Newport East, Newport West, Normanton Pontefract & Castleford, North West Durham, Norwich North, Oldham East & Saddleworth, Peterborough, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Portsmouth South, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Pudsey, Reading East, Redcar, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, Sedgefield, Southampton Itchen, Stalybridge & Hyde, Stockton North, Stockton South, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Stoke-on-Trent North, Stroud, Truro & Falmouth, Uxbridge & South Ruislip, Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan, Wakefield, Walsall South, Warrington South, Warwick & Leamington, Watford, Weaver Vale, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wirral South, Wirral West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South East, Wolverhampton South West, Workington, Worsley & Eccles South, Wrexham, Wycombe
Liberal Democrats: Brecon & Radnorshire, Carshalton & Wallington, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Eastbourne, Esher & Walton, Guildford, Hazel Grove, Lewes, North Norfolk, Richmond Park, South Cambridgeshire, St Albans, St Ives, Thornbury & Yate, Totnes, Wantage, Wells, Westmoreland & Lonsdale, Winchester, Wokingham
SNP: Aberdeen South, Angus, Ayr Carrick & Cumnock, Banff & Buchan, Dumfries & Galloway, East Renfrewshire, Gordon, Moray, Ochil & South Perthshire, Perth & North Perthshire, Stirling, West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
These are the seats where the challenger is obvious, but they may need tactical voting from other parties to get them over the line. Here they are, grouped by the party to vote for:
Labour: Aberconwy, Alyn & Deeside, Barrow & Furness, Bassetlaw, Bedford, Birmingham Edgbaston, Birmingham Erdington, Birmingham Northfield, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Blyth Valley, Bolsover, Bolton North East, Bradford South, Bridgend, Brighton Kemptown, Bristol North West, Burnley, Bury North, Bury South, Calder Valley, Canterbury, Cardiff North, Chesterfield, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Clwyd South, Colne Valley, Corby, Coventry North West, Coventry South, Crewe & Nantwich, Croydon Central, Dagenham & Rainham, Darlington, Delyn, Derby North, Dewsbury, Don Valley, Eltham, Enfield Southgate, Filton & Bradley Stoke, Gedling, Gower, Great Grimsby, Halifax, Harrow East, Hartlepool, Hastings & Rye, Hemsworth, Hendon, Heywood & Middleton, High Peak, Hyndburn, Ipswich, Keighley, Kingston upon Hull West & Hessle, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Leigh, Lincoln, Loughborough, Milton Keynes North, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Newport East, Newport West, Normanton Pontefract & Castleford, North West Durham, Norwich North, Oldham East & Saddleworth, Peterborough, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Portsmouth South, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Pudsey, Reading East, Redcar, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, Sedgefield, Southampton Itchen, Stalybridge & Hyde, Stockton North, Stockton South, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Stoke-on-Trent North, Stroud, Truro & Falmouth, Uxbridge & South Ruislip, Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan, Wakefield, Walsall South, Warrington South, Warwick & Leamington, Watford, Weaver Vale, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wirral South, Wirral West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South East, Wolverhampton South West, Workington, Worsley & Eccles South, Wrexham, Wycombe
Liberal Democrats: Brecon & Radnorshire, Carshalton & Wallington, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Eastbourne, Esher & Walton, Guildford, Hazel Grove, Lewes, North Norfolk, Richmond Park, South Cambridgeshire, St Albans, St Ives, Thornbury & Yate, Totnes, Wantage, Wells, Westmoreland & Lonsdale, Winchester, Wokingham
SNP: Aberdeen South, Angus, Ayr Carrick & Cumnock, Banff & Buchan, Dumfries & Galloway, East Renfrewshire, Gordon, Moray, Ochil & South Perthshire, Perth & North Perthshire, Stirling, West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine