Yesterday we saw the permutations for the final round of fixtures in the World Cup, for groups A-D. Today, we will look at the remaining four groups. There is also an updated version of the TGIAF World Cup simulator, which can be found in Appendix 1.
Group E: Ecuador vs. France, Honduras vs. Switzerland
Group F: Bosnia & Herzegovina vs. Iran, Nigeria vs. Argentina
Group G: Portugal vs. Ghana, USA vs. Germany
Group H: Algeria vs. Russia, South Korea vs. Belgium
This means we can work out the probabilities of each team qualifying, using these probabilities. For explanations on the details of this method, see yesterday's article.
Below are the probabilities for each team:
Bosnia & H: zero
South Korea: 4.1%
For the final round of games, it is exciting that every match affects the outcome of its group., and hopefully the final round of group fixtures are as exciting as the ones that have gone on before them.
Appendix 1 - Updated TGIAF World Cup Simulator
The updated simulator includes all the latest results, therefore it is now impossible to have a simulation with England qualifying from the group stage. The odds for the remaining group matches have been updated, however, the odds for the group stage onwards have not been updated. This is because this calculation previously took into account the odds of a team winning the tournament. However, the current tournament-winning odds will be heavily influence by current group position. So, for example, Portugal are currently listed as 100/1 to win the tournament, due to their precarious group position. But if they were to get through to the knockout rounds, then their odds would be much shorter. So using old tournament odds to influence our knockout round odds is the fairest solution.
Another addition to the simulator are percentage indicators for knockout fixtures, which are coloured green for the team which wins, allowing an easier overview of the progression of the tournament.
The simulator should appear as below: