Previously, we unveiled the first TGIAF Premiership Simulator, which used odds from bookmakers to generate a season's worth of results. However, we found that our simulator threw up a number of unrealistic outcomes, which could partly be down to unrealistically few victories for favourites.
by Adrian Worton
Previously, we unveiled the first TGIAF Premiership Simulator, which used odds from bookmakers to generate a season's worth of results. However, we found that our simulator threw up a number of unrealistic outcomes, which could partly be down to unrealistically few victories for favourites.
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by Adrian Worton
Last time we unveiled the TGIAF Premier League simulator. Whilst it is a sturdy model which uses form to dictate odds for matches, and therefore the probability of each team winning, it has thrown up results which seem to volatile, with smaller clubs like Crystal Palace, Sunderland and Stoke City often fighting for the title, and with large clubs such as Man United, Chelsea and Spurs just avoiding relegation. As we want our model to be as realistic as possible, to allow us to do more interesting analysis with it, we now need to consider what has gone wrong with it, and how we can improve it. by Adrian Worton
We have been slowly building a Premier League simulator. To do this we first needed to work out a relationship between two team's form and their chances of beating each other, before moving our focus to the Championship and calculating how much weaker than the Premiership it is. All this was enabled by our comprehensive database giving us results and odds for all Premier League games from the 2004/05 season to the 2013/14 season. by Adrian Worton
The magnificent 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow is proving to be very successful for the Home Nations, with Scotland breaking its medal record (both in terms of golds, and total medals) and England looking like they might top the medal table for the first time since 1986 (the last Games to be held in Scotland). What we want to know is whether success in a Commonwealth Games predicts success in the Olympic Games two years later. To do this we will need to work out how to standardise results in the two competitions. |
Author: Adrian
Doctor of Mathematics and former football analyst. Categories
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