Last time out we looked at how we can modify our General Election simulator using odds from the previous election. We won't go into detail about what this involves, except to say that it increases the chance of the favourite winning each seat.
Making these changes to our model, and updating the odds, means we can give our latest predictions for the election.
As with our March update, you can view the latest probabilities for your own local constituency! Simply use the drop-down list on the widget below:
We can now go through our predictions for each party individually.
Below are the chances of success for all candidates which are only contesting one seat within our model:
For the other parties within our model, we will get our number of seats from our usual method of running 1000 simulations.
Minor British parties
None of these won more than 1 seat, and indeed only Respect look capable of really finishing May with representation in government.
Northern Irish parties
There are six exclusively Northern Irish parties within our model. Below you can see their seat probabilities:
Now, onto the seven "debate" parties:
United Kingdom Independence Party
Scottish National Party
Conservatives vs. Labour
It is unsurprising to see which parties have improved and declined due to our alteration in modelling approach, but the effect has been quite extreme. It has also largely narrowed the ranges of seats we'd expect the parties to return, meaning come the election we have more confident predictions.
Our General Election Simulator page has been updated with this model.