by Dr Adrian Worton
In this article we are going to take a departure from looking specifically at our General Election model, which is based on bookies’ odds, and instead look at the numbers from the previous election.
Specifically, we are going to consider the vote share. By building a very simple model using the 2015 election, we can estimate how many seats each party will get in 2017 for various scenarios. You can find an editable version of this model in the Appendix at the end of this article.
In this article we are going to take a departure from looking specifically at our General Election model, which is based on bookies’ odds, and instead look at the numbers from the previous election.
Specifically, we are going to consider the vote share. By building a very simple model using the 2015 election, we can estimate how many seats each party will get in 2017 for various scenarios. You can find an editable version of this model in the Appendix at the end of this article.