by Adrian Worton
Yesterday we updated our General Election simulator with the latest odds, and the result can be viewed here. The only change to the method is that we've taken odds from three bookmakers - William Hill, BetFred and Ladbrokes - rather than just the latter. One of the biggest battlegrounds of the upcoming election is Scotland, with the SNP seeing its support soar to levels that could scarcely have been imagined even a few months ago. Some polls have predicted that the SNP are set to gain upwards of 50 seats, however our previous predictions have continually stayed lower than that, with the previous update to the model suggesting that the high-30s would be a more realistic total. by Adrian Worton
Having developed a model which converts bookies' odds into probabilities, and having looked at real-life results to see how the model needs tweaking, we are now in a position where we can analyse our model in order to see which bets are of a value which makes us likely to return a profit.
by Adrian Worton
Last time out we looked at how we can modify our General Election simulator using odds from the previous election. We won't go into detail about what this involves, except to say that it increases the chance of the favourite winning each seat. Making these changes to our model, and updating the odds, means we can give our latest predictions for the election.
by Adrian Worton
Our General Election model is based on odds given by bookies (namely Ladbrokes) for each constituency, which are turned into percentages and used as the basis for random generations. This is not the first election in which these odds have been available; the run up to the 2010 election was where Ladbrokes premiered their constituency-level odds. Therefore, having obtained some of these past odds we can look to see what can be learned about our current model. |
Author: Adrian
Doctor of Mathematics and football analyst. Categories
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