by Dr Adrian Worton

Despite the fact that the 2017 UK General Election was a few weeks ago, it is only recently that we've been able to get the data with the full list of votes for each seat.

With this, we are going to reprise the analysis we did in 2015, and look at how the election would have looked under a proportional system.

by Dr Adrian Worton

We are conducting the autopsy of our General Election 2017 model. Last time we looked at our individual predictions for each party. The issue with those is that we have little say over the location of these predictions. For example, if the bookies believe a party will make X seats, then our model will to, even if polling says they will make significantly fewer or more.

This time, we are looking at an element of our model that is definitely in our court - the chances of parties winning individual seats. Specifically, we will be looking at how we convert bookies' odds into probabilities. 

by Dr Adrian Worton

The dust has settled on another election with a surprise result. In this article we are going to review how our General Election model performed, starting with our party-by-party predictions. We will be looking at other aspects of our model output in future articles.

​by Dr Adrian Worton

Is it really the end of this snap General Election? Yes, we are finally there. And in this post we are going to simulate our General Election model one last time to give our final predictions. 

We will give party-by-party estimates, individual predictions for each part of the UK, and we will see how our comparisons measure up to elsewhere.

At the bottom of this page you can download the official TGIAF Election Dossier, a document which contains our predictions - for the election as a whole, as well as for every constituency. And don't forget, tonight we will be covering the election live here with our innovative analysis. 

by Dr Adrian Worton

We are just three days away from the 2017 General Election (I know, it feels like the campaign has been going on forever), and some of you will be planning to stay up all night and follow the results as they come in.

Well, we are going to be covering the election live, as we did in 2015, on TGIAF! We will be using our 2017 General Election model to give predictions and to signify where the interesting results lie. ​