Last year we used our usual odds-probability method to provide the probabilities of the candidates for the various awards given at the Oscars (or, to give them their less interesting name, the Academy Awards). This method then allows us to use random number generation to create a simulator.
Therefore, do keep checking back on this article to see how the Oscars race is progressing.
Firstly, you can see the standings for each award; simply select the award you wish to view from the drop-down list at the top. The latest probabilities are shown at the top, whilst at the bottom you can see how these have changed (for the top five candidates) since we started recording data on the 22nd of January. The markers on the graph show when the probabilities were updated.
Secondly, you can view the awards each individual movie is nominated for, again by using the drop-down list at the top of the embedded sheet below. The expected haul is simply the number of awards which the movie is currently favourite to win.
Naturally, since the standings will likely change during February, these comments will be dated.
The big winner, at least in sheer terms of gongs, appears set to be Mad Max. However, all six expected victories are in the non-glamourous technical categories, beating competition in these from Star Wars and The Martian, both of which could end up empty-handed as a result.
The distribution of the main prizes appears to be far more fragmented, with only The Revenant (3) and Spotlight (2) expected to pick up more than one prize. However, there is fierce competition between these two films and The Big Short for the majority of the main prizes, and it is likely that whichever the Oscars panel lean towards, they will pick up more prizes than predicted. Currently, the four acting prizes appear to have heavy favourites compared to the likes of Best Picture and Best Director.
The fight for the main prize has become a very close three-horse race, with an almost even split in probability. By contrast, the other big awards see no major changes, generally seeing the favourite pull slightly ahead, possibly just due to betting patterns.
The only award to see a change in favourite is Best Visual Effects, where Star Wars has taken the lead following major success at the Visual Effects Society awards. If the film does win the Best Visual Effects award, it will follow in the footsteps of the original trilogy.
Following consistent success during the awards period, The Revenant has pulled away as the clear favourite for the Best Picture award, with Iñárritu a runaway favourite now for Best Director.
Among the less glamourous awards Mad Max has strengthened its grip on the technical awards, now replacing Cinderella as the favourite for the Best Costume Design award.
There are no real changes in the final week, the only notable ones being the Short Subject documentary award becoming a neck-and-neck battle, and the Revenant closing Mad Max down in the sound categories.
Oddschecker - for a summary of the latest odds.