by Adrian Worton
Yesterday we introduced the simulator for the Six Nations, and analysed by running multiple simulations. We can now compare the results of those simulations, which are the summation of short-term odds with the long-term odds of various events.
Yesterday we introduced the simulator for the Six Nations, and analysed by running multiple simulations. We can now compare the results of those simulations, which are the summation of short-term odds with the long-term odds of various events.
Six Nations winners
Firstly, we can take the odds from eight well-known bookmakers for the winner of the Six Nations, convert them to probabilities using our usual method and compare with the proportion of times each team won the title in our repeated simulations. These can be seen below:
Firstly, we can take the odds from eight well-known bookmakers for the winner of the Six Nations, convert them to probabilities using our usual method and compare with the proportion of times each team won the title in our repeated simulations. These can be seen below:
We can see that firstly, the bookies have largely reached a consensus on each team's likelihood of winning. Each appear to believe that England are the most likely to win the title, followed by Wales, Ireland, France and Scotland, with Italy having a negligible chance.
We can see some slight differences between the likelihoods suggested by the long-term odds and our simulations, but this can be explored easier by looking at the graph below:
We can see some slight differences between the likelihoods suggested by the long-term odds and our simulations, but this can be explored easier by looking at the graph below:
The two diamonds per team represent the minimum and maximum likelihood suggested by the bookmakers' odds. The diagonal line represents the proportion of simulations each team won. Therefore, if the diagonal line passes between a team's diamonds, then the bookies' long-term and short-term odds are in agreement.
We can see there are two teams who this does not apply to:
Scotland - as the line passes below the markers for Scotland, this suggests that the outright odds for them to win the Six Nations are too short given their match-by-match odds. So there is potentially value to be found in betting on Scotland in individual matches.
France - as the line passes above their markers, we can see that the long-term odds give France less chance of winning the tournament than their match-by-match odds would suggest. Therefore, it is unlikely that betting on France in individual matches will provide good value, instead backing them to win the tournament overall might provide better reward (although it is still at best only 17.3% likely to happen).
Wooden spoon winners
We can also apply the same analysis to the odds provided by the same bookmakers for the race to win the wooden spoon - the team finishing last.
We can see there are two teams who this does not apply to:
Scotland - as the line passes below the markers for Scotland, this suggests that the outright odds for them to win the Six Nations are too short given their match-by-match odds. So there is potentially value to be found in betting on Scotland in individual matches.
France - as the line passes above their markers, we can see that the long-term odds give France less chance of winning the tournament than their match-by-match odds would suggest. Therefore, it is unlikely that betting on France in individual matches will provide good value, instead backing them to win the tournament overall might provide better reward (although it is still at best only 17.3% likely to happen).
Wooden spoon winners
We can also apply the same analysis to the odds provided by the same bookmakers for the race to win the wooden spoon - the team finishing last.
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Unsurprisingly, we can see that both the simulations and the outright odds suggest Italy are strong favourites to finish last, with only Scotland really providing any sort of competition. In keeping with the pro-England theme of the odds so far, we see them as the team last present on the left-hand graph.
On the right-hand graph we can see that the only team discrepancy between the long-term and short-term odds is with Italy, who are slightly below the line, suggesting that the odds provided actually aren't short enough, and might represent value for money.
Summary
We can see that overall for this tournament the long-term and short-term odds are largely in agreement, with only minor differences. This is in contrast to the football World Cup, where we found plenty of bets to recommend. This may be because the World Cup simulator involved probabilities created from looking at past odds, whereas the Six Nations simulator has every match already provided with odds.
On the right-hand graph we can see that the only team discrepancy between the long-term and short-term odds is with Italy, who are slightly below the line, suggesting that the odds provided actually aren't short enough, and might represent value for money.
Summary
We can see that overall for this tournament the long-term and short-term odds are largely in agreement, with only minor differences. This is in contrast to the football World Cup, where we found plenty of bets to recommend. This may be because the World Cup simulator involved probabilities created from looking at past odds, whereas the Six Nations simulator has every match already provided with odds.
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