Yesterday we introduced the simulator for the Six Nations, and analysed by running multiple simulations. We can now compare the results of those simulations, which are the summation of short-term odds with the long-term odds of various events.
Firstly, we can take the odds from eight well-known bookmakers for the winner of the Six Nations, convert them to probabilities using our usual method and compare with the proportion of times each team won the title in our repeated simulations. These can be seen below:
We can see some slight differences between the likelihoods suggested by the long-term odds and our simulations, but this can be explored easier by looking at the graph below:
We can see there are two teams who this does not apply to:
Scotland - as the line passes below the markers for Scotland, this suggests that the outright odds for them to win the Six Nations are too short given their match-by-match odds. So there is potentially value to be found in betting on Scotland in individual matches.
France - as the line passes above their markers, we can see that the long-term odds give France less chance of winning the tournament than their match-by-match odds would suggest. Therefore, it is unlikely that betting on France in individual matches will provide good value, instead backing them to win the tournament overall might provide better reward (although it is still at best only 17.3% likely to happen).
Wooden spoon winners
We can also apply the same analysis to the odds provided by the same bookmakers for the race to win the wooden spoon - the team finishing last.
On the right-hand graph we can see that the only team discrepancy between the long-term and short-term odds is with Italy, who are slightly below the line, suggesting that the odds provided actually aren't short enough, and might represent value for money.
We can see that overall for this tournament the long-term and short-term odds are largely in agreement, with only minor differences. This is in contrast to the football World Cup, where we found plenty of bets to recommend. This may be because the World Cup simulator involved probabilities created from looking at past odds, whereas the Six Nations simulator has every match already provided with odds.