by Dr Adrian Worton
Last time we looked at how tactical voting can work in a proportional system, specifically how anti-Brexit voters can coordinate to reduce the number of Brexit party MEPs in Scotland.
In this article we extend this analysis to England and Wales.
Last time we looked at how tactical voting can work in a proportional system, specifically how anti-Brexit voters can coordinate to reduce the number of Brexit party MEPs in Scotland.
In this article we extend this analysis to England and Wales.
Since this covers ten constituencies, we won't bother with a long spiel - if you want that you'd be best off reading the article on Scotland.
For each of the 10 constituencies in England and Wales we will use the result from the very recent YouGov/Best for Britain poll. We will assume the turnout will be the same as the 2014 Election in that constituency.
You can view the analysis for each constituency (listed North-to-South) below.
For each of the 10 constituencies in England and Wales we will use the result from the very recent YouGov/Best for Britain poll. We will assume the turnout will be the same as the 2014 Election in that constituency.
You can view the analysis for each constituency (listed North-to-South) below.
North East England
Predicted result
MEPs elected
Analysis
It appears cut-and-dried that the Brexit party and Labour will each return one MEP. The most likely outcome is that the third MEP would also be from the Brexit party. In order to prevent that, any of the following things needs to happen:
With more predicted votes than the Greens & Change UK combined, the Lib Dems appear best-set to challenge. Therefore, voters for each of these two parties should consider changing their vote to the Lib Dems if their main goal is to keep the Brexit party out.
Labour can afford to lose 51,735 votes and remain second on the list, so if some Labour voters switched to the Lib Dems it would further improve the chances of only one Brexit party MEP for this region.
- Brexit party 1st candidate (213,028)
- Labour 1st candidate (158,250)
- Brexit party 2nd candidate (106,514)
Analysis
It appears cut-and-dried that the Brexit party and Labour will each return one MEP. The most likely outcome is that the third MEP would also be from the Brexit party. In order to prevent that, any of the following things needs to happen:
- The Lib Dems gain 33,477 votes
- Labour gain 54,779 votes
- The Greens gain 69,996 votes
- Change UK gain 76,083 votes
With more predicted votes than the Greens & Change UK combined, the Lib Dems appear best-set to challenge. Therefore, voters for each of these two parties should consider changing their vote to the Lib Dems if their main goal is to keep the Brexit party out.
Labour can afford to lose 51,735 votes and remain second on the list, so if some Labour voters switched to the Lib Dems it would further improve the chances of only one Brexit party MEP for this region.
North West England
Predicted result
MEPs elected
Analysis
Here, the Brexit party's third candidate sits in 6th of 8. Therefore, three of the following needs to happen to limit the party to two MEPs:
The latter two of these appears pretty unlikely. Labour can afford to lose 11,698 votes and return two MEPs, so if a combination of Labour and Change UK defectors went to the Greens and Lib Dems there's a small chance of only two Brexit party MEPs, but it would also rely on the Conservatives increasing their vote by 29,245 as well.
- Brexit party 1st candidate (561,500)
- Labour 1st candidate (386,031)
- Lib Dem 1st candidate (298,297)
- Brexit party 2nd candidate (280,750)
- Labour 2nd candidate (193,016)
- Brexit party 3rd candidate (187,167)
- Conservative 1st candidate (157,922)
- Green 1st candidate (157,922)
Analysis
Here, the Brexit party's third candidate sits in 6th of 8. Therefore, three of the following needs to happen to limit the party to two MEPs:
- The Greens gain 29,245 votes
- The Lib Dems gain 76,037 votes
- Change UK gain 134,526 votes
- Labour gain 175,469 votes
The latter two of these appears pretty unlikely. Labour can afford to lose 11,698 votes and return two MEPs, so if a combination of Labour and Change UK defectors went to the Greens and Lib Dems there's a small chance of only two Brexit party MEPs, but it would also rely on the Conservatives increasing their vote by 29,245 as well.
Yorkshire and the Humber
Predicted results
MEPs elected
Analysis
With their third candidate holding onto the sixth spot, there appears a chance that the Brexit party could be limited to two MEPs in this region. It requires one of the following to happen:
The closest of these is Labour. If they gain votes from Change UK voters and possible from the Greens and the Lib Dems, they may be able to gain a second MEP. It should be noted that the Greens can only afford to lose 25,934 votes before slipping into sixth place. So Green voters in Yorkshire should avoid trying to vote tactically.
- Brexit party 1st candidate (427,911)
- Labour 1st candidate (233,406)
- Brexit party 2nd candidate (213,956)
- Lib Dem 1st candidate (207,472)
- Green 1st candidate (168,571)
- Brexit party 3rd candidate 142,637)
Analysis
With their third candidate holding onto the sixth spot, there appears a chance that the Brexit party could be limited to two MEPs in this region. It requires one of the following to happen:
- Labour to gain 51,869 votes
- The Lib Dems to gain 77,803 votes
- Change UK to gain 90,769 votes
- The Greens to gain 116,704 votes
The closest of these is Labour. If they gain votes from Change UK voters and possible from the Greens and the Lib Dems, they may be able to gain a second MEP. It should be noted that the Greens can only afford to lose 25,934 votes before slipping into sixth place. So Green voters in Yorkshire should avoid trying to vote tactically.
East Midlands
Predicted results
MEPs elected
Analysis
With the Brexit party taking such a high proportion of the vote they claim the top two places, they are very well-placed to take the majority of seats here. In order to prevent this, one of the following needs to happen:
The obvious one here is the vote for the Greens to increase. If the Change UK voters shift to the Greens here, with some Labour and Lib Dem defectors (the two parties can afford to lose 41,093 and 29,886 voters respectively), and the Greens could take the fifth MEP for the region.
- Brexit party 1st candidate (414,667)
- Brexit party 2nd candidate (207,334)
- Labour 1st candidate (179,316)
- Lib Dem 1st candidate (168,108)
- Brexit party 3rd candidate (138,222)
Analysis
With the Brexit party taking such a high proportion of the vote they claim the top two places, they are very well-placed to take the majority of seats here. In order to prevent this, one of the following needs to happen:
- The Greens to gain 26,150 votes
- Change UK to gain 93,394 votes
- Labour to gain 97,130 votes
- The Lib Dems to gain 108,337 votes
The obvious one here is the vote for the Greens to increase. If the Change UK voters shift to the Greens here, with some Labour and Lib Dem defectors (the two parties can afford to lose 41,093 and 29,886 voters respectively), and the Greens could take the fifth MEP for the region.
West Midlands
Predicted results
MEPs elected
Analysis
There is a chance here of a whopping four Brexit party MEPs being returned for this region. The most likely way this will be denied is if the Conservatives manage to slightly increase their vote share from the value above. But from the point of view of the anti-Brexit parties, one of the following has to happen:
These are all quite high numbers required. There is a small chance if other parties moved towards Labour, but the Greens and Lib Dems should be wary as they can only afford to lose 70,187 and 52,641 votes respectively. As with every other constituency so far, Change UK voters would be better served going anywhere else.
- Brexit party 1st candidate (701,875)
- Brexit party 2nd candidate (350,937)
- Labour 1st candidate (263,203)
- Green 1st candidate (245,656)
- Brexit party 3rd candidate (233,958)
- Lib Dem 1st candidate (228,109)
- Brexit 4th candidate/Conservative 1st candidate (175,469)
Analysis
There is a chance here of a whopping four Brexit party MEPs being returned for this region. The most likely way this will be denied is if the Conservatives manage to slightly increase their vote share from the value above. But from the point of view of the anti-Brexit parties, one of the following has to happen:
- Labour to gain 87,735 votes
- Change UK to gain 105,281 votes
- The Greens to gain 105,282 votes
- The Lib Dems to gain 122,829 votes
These are all quite high numbers required. There is a small chance if other parties moved towards Labour, but the Greens and Lib Dems should be wary as they can only afford to lose 70,187 and 52,641 votes respectively. As with every other constituency so far, Change UK voters would be better served going anywhere else.
Wales
Predicted results
MEPs elected
Analysis
With a huge lead over the other parties, it seems very likely that the Brexit party will take two of the four seats available in Wales. In order for this not to happen, two of the following needs to occur:
Labour aside, these are huge gaps to close down, even the entirety of the Change UK vote moving to one specific party wouldn't be enough to swing the result. It is important that Plaid and Labour voters stay put to avoid a shock third Brexit party MEP for Wales.
- Brexit party 1st candidate (470,219)
- Plaid Cymru 1st candidate (255,262)
- Brexit party 2nd candidate (235,110)
- Labour 1st candidate (201,522)
Analysis
With a huge lead over the other parties, it seems very likely that the Brexit party will take two of the four seats available in Wales. In order for this not to happen, two of the following needs to occur:
- Labour to gain 33,587 votes
- The Lib Dems to gain 114,196 votes
- The Greens to gain 141,066 votes
- Change UK to gain 194,805 votes
- Plaid Cymru to gain 214,958 votes
Labour aside, these are huge gaps to close down, even the entirety of the Change UK vote moving to one specific party wouldn't be enough to swing the result. It is important that Plaid and Labour voters stay put to avoid a shock third Brexit party MEP for Wales.
East of England
Predicted results
MEPs elected
Analysis
To take four MEPs in a region would be a huge result for the Brexit party, and with a percentage share 23% greater than the next-highest, it's a real possibility. To prevent this, one of the following needs to happen:
There's a chance of the Lib Dems taking the seventh MEP for the East of England. However, it depends where those votes come from - if the Green vote dips at all they will lose their MEP, whilst Labour can afford to lose 78,717 votes. As usual, a lot will depend on Change UK voters shifting allegiance.
- Brexit party 1st candidate (629,738)
- Brexit party 2nd candidate (314,869)
- Lib Dem 1st candidate (267,639)
- Labour 1st candidate (236,152)
- Brexit party 3rd candidate (209,913)
- Green 1st candidate (157,435)
- Brexit party 4th candidate (157,435)
Analysis
To take four MEPs in a region would be a huge result for the Brexit party, and with a percentage share 23% greater than the next-highest, it's a real possibility. To prevent this, one of the following needs to happen:
- The Lib Dems to gain 47,231 votes
- Labour to gain 78,718 votes
- Change UK to gain 94,462 votes
- The Greens to gain 157,436 votes
There's a chance of the Lib Dems taking the seventh MEP for the East of England. However, it depends where those votes come from - if the Green vote dips at all they will lose their MEP, whilst Labour can afford to lose 78,717 votes. As usual, a lot will depend on Change UK voters shifting allegiance.
London
Predicted results
MEPs elected
Analysis
Unsurprisingly, London displays wildly different characteristics to the rest of England. The Lib Dems appear in a good position to actually win a constituency. The Brexit party will certainly pick up one MEP, but if three of the following happen, they could be denied a second:
Given the scale of the London constituency (2.2 million voters last time, the second-most of any UK constituency), these numbers are not as insurmountable as before. And for the first time, Change UK could be in with a minor shout of being elected. The Greens can afford to lose 77,017 votes, and if those went to Labour or Change UK, there may be a chance.
- Lib Dem 1st candidate (528,114)
- Brexit party 1st candidate (462,100)
- Labour 1st candidate (418,090)
- Green 1st candidate (308,067)
- Lib Dem 2nd candidate (264,057)
- Brexit party 2nd candidate (231,050)
- Conservative 1st candidate (220,048)
- Labour 2nd candidate (209,045)
Analysis
Unsurprisingly, London displays wildly different characteristics to the rest of England. The Lib Dems appear in a good position to actually win a constituency. The Brexit party will certainly pick up one MEP, but if three of the following happen, they could be denied a second:
- Labour to gain 44,010 votes
- Change UK to gain 99,021 votes
- The Greens to gain 154,034 votes
- The Lib Dems to gain 165,037 votes
Given the scale of the London constituency (2.2 million voters last time, the second-most of any UK constituency), these numbers are not as insurmountable as before. And for the first time, Change UK could be in with a minor shout of being elected. The Greens can afford to lose 77,017 votes, and if those went to Labour or Change UK, there may be a chance.
South East England
Predicted results
MEPs elected
Analysis
The immediate caveat here is that with such a large constituency (10 seats and 2.3 million voters last time; the most of any UK constituency), predictions will be less accurate. Anyway, it appears that the Brexit party have a very good chance of taking half of the seats available. To prevent that, one of the following green changes needs to happen, or two of the blue changes to reduce the Brexit party to 3 MEPs:
The Lib Dems are well-placed, and again Change UK come into the equation. The Greens and Labour can afford to lose 84,354 and 61,052 votes respectively, and that is where the Lib Dem or Change UK votes need to come from.
- Brexit party 1st candidate (868,822)
- Lib Dem 1st candidate (493,115)
- Brexit party 2nd candidate (434,411)
- Brexit party 3rd candidate (289,607)
- Conservative 1st candidate (258,298)
- Green 1st candidate (258,298)
- Lib Dem 2nd candidate (246,558)
- Labour 1st candidate (234,817)
- Brexit party 4th candidate (217,206)
- Brexit party 5th candidate (173,764)
Analysis
The immediate caveat here is that with such a large constituency (10 seats and 2.3 million voters last time; the most of any UK constituency), predictions will be less accurate. Anyway, it appears that the Brexit party have a very good chance of taking half of the seats available. To prevent that, one of the following green changes needs to happen, or two of the blue changes to reduce the Brexit party to 3 MEPs:
- The Lib Dems gain 28,179 votes/158,502 votes
- Change UK gain 56,356 votes/99,797 votes
- The Greens to gain 89,231 votes/176,114 votes
- Labour to gain 112,713 votes/199,595 votes
The Lib Dems are well-placed, and again Change UK come into the equation. The Greens and Labour can afford to lose 84,354 and 61,052 votes respectively, and that is where the Lib Dem or Change UK votes need to come from.
South West England
Predicted results
MEPs elected
Analysis
It's a case of saving the best until last for the Brexit party, who record their highest poll share in this constituency, potentially being rewarded with four out of six seats. Bearing in mind the difficulty in gaining a majority in a proportional system, that's some going. To limit the Brexit party to 3 MEPs, one of the following needs to happen:
The numbers here are much smaller than in other constituencies, and with a bit of smart voting it should be very plausible for the Lib Dems and/or Labour to take the sixth MEP. The obvious place would be for Change UK voters to switch to the Lib Dems.
- Brexit party 1st candidate (631,333)
- Brexit party 2nd candidate (315,667)
- Lib Dem 1st candidate (300,635)
- Brexit party 3rd candidate (210,444)
- Green 1st candidate (180,381)
- Brexit party 4th candidate (157,833)
Analysis
It's a case of saving the best until last for the Brexit party, who record their highest poll share in this constituency, potentially being rewarded with four out of six seats. Bearing in mind the difficulty in gaining a majority in a proportional system, that's some going. To limit the Brexit party to 3 MEPs, one of the following needs to happen:
- The Lib Dems to gain 15,033 votes
- Labour to gain 37,579 votes
- Change UK to gain 97,706 votes
- The Greens to gain 135,287 votes
The numbers here are much smaller than in other constituencies, and with a bit of smart voting it should be very plausible for the Lib Dems and/or Labour to take the sixth MEP. The obvious place would be for Change UK voters to switch to the Lib Dems.
Conclusion
There are plenty of caveats with the analysis done. Firstly, the data used for this article is based on a single poll. We know full well how misleading polls can be, and any significant changes may render the tactics in the constituencies above redundant, or potentially even counter-productive.
However, one recurring theme is that Change UK appear unlikely to pick up a single MEP across the whole country. Given the unclear difference in policy between them and the Liberal Democrats, it would almost certainly be best for anyone planning to vote for Change UK to consider switching to the Lib Dems, or even a different anti-Brexit party.
This analysis has also assumed an equivalence between the anti-Brexit parties, which most certainly doesn't exist. This is written from the point of view of wanting to reduce the number of Brexit party MEPs in the European Parliament, but many voters will have completely different reasons to vote for who they wish - myself included. The articles today have been inspired by an off-hand comment in an election communication I received, and has allowed us to go into the possibilities of tactical voting in a proportional election.
There are plenty of caveats with the analysis done. Firstly, the data used for this article is based on a single poll. We know full well how misleading polls can be, and any significant changes may render the tactics in the constituencies above redundant, or potentially even counter-productive.
However, one recurring theme is that Change UK appear unlikely to pick up a single MEP across the whole country. Given the unclear difference in policy between them and the Liberal Democrats, it would almost certainly be best for anyone planning to vote for Change UK to consider switching to the Lib Dems, or even a different anti-Brexit party.
This analysis has also assumed an equivalence between the anti-Brexit parties, which most certainly doesn't exist. This is written from the point of view of wanting to reduce the number of Brexit party MEPs in the European Parliament, but many voters will have completely different reasons to vote for who they wish - myself included. The articles today have been inspired by an off-hand comment in an election communication I received, and has allowed us to go into the possibilities of tactical voting in a proportional election.