by Adrian Worton
Last time we had a look at what the teams in Groups A-C of the Women's World Cup need to do to ensure qualification. Groups A and B will play their final games tonight, but our attention now shifts to the remaining three groups.
Last time we had a look at what the teams in Groups A-C of the Women's World Cup need to do to ensure qualification. Groups A and B will play their final games tonight, but our attention now shifts to the remaining three groups.
Below are the current standings for each group (team name; goal difference; points):
| Group D 1. USA; +2; 4pts 2. AUS; 0; 3pts 3. SWE; 0; 2pts 4. NGA; -2; 1pt | Group E 1. BRA; +3; 6pts 2. CRC; 0; 2pts 3. ESP; -1; 1pt 4. KOR; -2; 1pt | Group F 1. COL; +2; 4pts 2. ENG; 0; 3pts 3. FRA; -1; 3pts 4. MEX; -1; 1pt |
Recall that the top two sides progress to the next round, with the four best of the six third-placed teams getting through. However, as with last time, we will just focus on finishing in the top two.
Below are the possibilities for each group, including the probabilities of each outcome suggested by odds:
Below are the possibilities for each group, including the probabilities of each outcome suggested by odds:
The interesting thing is that unlike Groups B & C, all three of the groups we've looked at today see all four teams with a chance of qualification.
Using the same method as last time, we can work out the probabilities of each side progressing:
Using the same method as last time, we can work out the probabilities of each side progressing:
| Group D USA - 94.9% AUS - 57.7% SWE - 41.1% NGA - 6.0% | Group E BRA - certain ESP - 44.6% KOR - 29.0% CRC - 26.4% | Group F FRA - 84.5% ENG - 62.1% COL - 48.9% MEX - 4.4% |
We can see how open the three groups are. Group D is likely to see USA through, and Nigeria out, so the main interest lies in the Australia - Sweden fixture. Whilst Sweden are favourites, Australia are more likely to go through simply because a draw would suit them.
Group E sees Brazil already winning the group. Therefore, we see a three-way race between Spain, South Korea and Costa Rica. Even though Costa Rica narrowly lead this race, they face Brazil in their final match, meaning they are actually the least likely to progress.
And in the final group we see an even more curious phenomenon, where group leaders Colombia, who can go through in eight of the nine possibilities, are still more likely to fail to make the top two. Although it is not hard to think that the bookmakers have underestimated their ability, given how well they played against France.
Long-term vs short-term odds
As we did with Groups A-C, we can compare our probabilities for a top-two finish with those suggested by odds:
Group E sees Brazil already winning the group. Therefore, we see a three-way race between Spain, South Korea and Costa Rica. Even though Costa Rica narrowly lead this race, they face Brazil in their final match, meaning they are actually the least likely to progress.
And in the final group we see an even more curious phenomenon, where group leaders Colombia, who can go through in eight of the nine possibilities, are still more likely to fail to make the top two. Although it is not hard to think that the bookmakers have underestimated their ability, given how well they played against France.
Long-term vs short-term odds
As we did with Groups A-C, we can compare our probabilities for a top-two finish with those suggested by odds:
Curiously, there are odds available for Brazil finishing in the top two of Group E, despite the fact it is a foregone conclusion. So even at 1/100, this represents a good value bet. Costa Rica also appear to be good value for money.
Colombia being given odds of qualification of 3/1 is quite high, given that we showed they can progress with eight out of the nine possibilities. Although given that 4 points is likely to be enough even if they finish third, there is a chance Colombia take their foot off the pedal in their match against England.
But the most significant difference is in Group D. We commented earlier that it was slightly surprising that Sweden were less likely to finish in the top two than Australia, given they went into the match as favourites, and this shows in the long-term odds. This means that either betting on Sweden to win the match is good value for money, or betting on Australia to win the group is. In fact, these two outcomes trade off against each other perfectly, since if Sweden fail to win, then Australia will qualify (unless this match is a draw, and Nigeria beat USA by 2 in a high-scoring match - but such a situation is exceptionally unlikely).
Therefore, if you place a bet on:
Summary
It may be a result of there being less public attention on the Women's World Cup than in the men's tournament last year, but we have seen some very surprising slip-ups from the betting companies. Given the disaster of the bets placed on the 2015 General Election, this presents a chance to recoup some money.
With all six groups looked at now, our articles should provide some clues as to what to expect in the next few days.
Colombia being given odds of qualification of 3/1 is quite high, given that we showed they can progress with eight out of the nine possibilities. Although given that 4 points is likely to be enough even if they finish third, there is a chance Colombia take their foot off the pedal in their match against England.
But the most significant difference is in Group D. We commented earlier that it was slightly surprising that Sweden were less likely to finish in the top two than Australia, given they went into the match as favourites, and this shows in the long-term odds. This means that either betting on Sweden to win the match is good value for money, or betting on Australia to win the group is. In fact, these two outcomes trade off against each other perfectly, since if Sweden fail to win, then Australia will qualify (unless this match is a draw, and Nigeria beat USA by 2 in a high-scoring match - but such a situation is exceptionally unlikely).
Therefore, if you place a bet on:
- Sweden to beat Australia (5/4)
- Australia to finish in the top two (9/10)
Summary
It may be a result of there being less public attention on the Women's World Cup than in the men's tournament last year, but we have seen some very surprising slip-ups from the betting companies. Given the disaster of the bets placed on the 2015 General Election, this presents a chance to recoup some money.
With all six groups looked at now, our articles should provide some clues as to what to expect in the next few days.
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