by Adrian Worton
The 2015 Cricket World Cup is now into the knockout stages, with all eight quarter-finalists being full member nations. If you are interested in the probability of each team winning the tournament, we have been tracking the odds for each nation, and you can view these here.
The 2015 Cricket World Cup is now into the knockout stages, with all eight quarter-finalists being full member nations. If you are interested in the probability of each team winning the tournament, we have been tracking the odds for each nation, and you can view these here.
The ICC are planning to change the format of the next World Cup (2019, England) by reducing the total number of teams to 10, which will seriously limit the chances for associate nations to play at the tournament.
Here we aim to look at the performances of associate nations over the World Cups this century in order to see whether their performances suggest they are becoming more or less competitive.
Measurement
We will look at the average run rate for both member nations and associates across each tournament. Run rate is calculated by dividing the total runs scored in an innings by the number of balls that team faced.
So for example, if a team score 300/6 runs in 50 overs, then their run rate is 300/50 = 6.
If a team are chasing a target of 299, and they achieve it in 30 overs by scoring 300/6, then their run rate is 300/30 = 10.
However, if a team are bowled out then their run rate is calculated using the full number of overs they were expected to face. So if a team were 100 all out from 20 overs, their run rate would be 100/50 = 2.
We will just be looking at matches between associate nations and member nations, and only taking matches from the main group stage, despite Kenya and Ireland qualifying to the next round in 2003 and 2007 respectively. This is because these better associate teams would face more matches than the others, skewing the results.
Results
Below we can see the run rates for our nations:
Here we aim to look at the performances of associate nations over the World Cups this century in order to see whether their performances suggest they are becoming more or less competitive.
Measurement
We will look at the average run rate for both member nations and associates across each tournament. Run rate is calculated by dividing the total runs scored in an innings by the number of balls that team faced.
So for example, if a team score 300/6 runs in 50 overs, then their run rate is 300/50 = 6.
If a team are chasing a target of 299, and they achieve it in 30 overs by scoring 300/6, then their run rate is 300/30 = 10.
However, if a team are bowled out then their run rate is calculated using the full number of overs they were expected to face. So if a team were 100 all out from 20 overs, their run rate would be 100/50 = 2.
We will just be looking at matches between associate nations and member nations, and only taking matches from the main group stage, despite Kenya and Ireland qualifying to the next round in 2003 and 2007 respectively. This is because these better associate teams would face more matches than the others, skewing the results.
Results
Below we can see the run rates for our nations:
The increase from 2011 and 2015 isn't unexpected, given the big hitting we've seen in the last few weeks. If we included all World Cup matches in our sample, it is highly likely the members' run rates would far exceed those of 2007, which 400 being passed multiple times. However, some excellent bowling displays have also reduced some very good teams to surprisingly weak scores.
For the associates, we can see that they've clearly been improving in their run rate, but this doesn't given us a great idea of whether they have been getting closer to the member nations, so below are the differences in run rate between the member and associate nations:
For the associates, we can see that they've clearly been improving in their run rate, but this doesn't given us a great idea of whether they have been getting closer to the member nations, so below are the differences in run rate between the member and associate nations:
We can see here that the current effort is the closest the associates have ever got to challenging members, with the difference almost down to below 2 runs per over.
We can also look at the differences between associates and members in the Twenty20 World Cup, this is shown below:
We can also look at the differences between associates and members in the Twenty20 World Cup, this is shown below:
There are far fewer matches involving associates in the T20 World Cup (4 in all tournaments except 2009), hence the variable nature of these results, therefore it is hard to read anything into these results. It should also be noted that the only associate team in the 2014 edition of the tournament was the Netherlands.
Summary
The stats for the 50 over World Cup show that there is clear improvement in the competitiveness of the associate nations, raising questions as to why the ICC has now decided to all but end their involvement in their sport's most high-profile event.
However, even if the associates were failing to challenge the larger nations, the only way these countries are going to develop into better teams are through further contests with the big boys. It is astonishing how the ICC seems to be the only governing body in world sport who actively wants to discouraging spreading the reach of its game.
Summary
The stats for the 50 over World Cup show that there is clear improvement in the competitiveness of the associate nations, raising questions as to why the ICC has now decided to all but end their involvement in their sport's most high-profile event.
However, even if the associates were failing to challenge the larger nations, the only way these countries are going to develop into better teams are through further contests with the big boys. It is astonishing how the ICC seems to be the only governing body in world sport who actively wants to discouraging spreading the reach of its game.
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