by Dr Adrian Worton
By analysing transfers made by Premier League clubs over the last four seasons, we have been able to come up with a measure of how good-value signings have been. This method was then used to see where the best-value players have been bought from.
This time we will be considering the past form of signings in order to measure how well they have adapted to the Premier League.
By analysing transfers made by Premier League clubs over the last four seasons, we have been able to come up with a measure of how good-value signings have been. This method was then used to see where the best-value players have been bought from.
This time we will be considering the past form of signings in order to measure how well they have adapted to the Premier League.
The data
As before, we use all transfers made by Premier League clubs made between the 2013/14 and 2016/17 seasons, where the player has made at least ten appearances for his new club (explained here). As we are considering past performances as well, this time we will only consider players who played at least ten matches for their previous club before moving.
For each player, the average rating (according to WhoScored) from their last three seasons with their old club is compared to the average rating in their first three seasons with their new club. If a player was on loan just before moving, they are counted as moving from the loaned club, since that is where their ratings are for.
The leagues for which ratings are recorded, and therefore can be used, are:
The results
For each league, the average difference in ratings is recorded. The results of which can be seen below:
As before, we use all transfers made by Premier League clubs made between the 2013/14 and 2016/17 seasons, where the player has made at least ten appearances for his new club (explained here). As we are considering past performances as well, this time we will only consider players who played at least ten matches for their previous club before moving.
For each player, the average rating (according to WhoScored) from their last three seasons with their old club is compared to the average rating in their first three seasons with their new club. If a player was on loan just before moving, they are counted as moving from the loaned club, since that is where their ratings are for.
The leagues for which ratings are recorded, and therefore can be used, are:
- England's Premier League (153 transfers)
- England's Championship (36 transfers)
- France's Ligue 1 (36 transfers)
- Germany's Bundesliga (33 transfers)
- Italy's Serie A (31 transfers)
- Netherland's Eredivisie (13 transfers)
- Russia's Premier League (5 transfers)
- Spain's La Liga (43 transfers)
The results
For each league, the average difference in ratings is recorded. The results of which can be seen below:
The first thing to note is that for all leagues, the difference is negative. This means that their performance has dropped after moving to the Premier League. This isn't a huge surprise, as we would expect a player who has been bought to have played well enough to merit a transfer, after which regression to the mean may occur (which is explained here). There is also the time required for a player to become familiar with his new club, or indeed for his manager to find the best way of utilising him.
As we would expect, the English Premier League has the smallest difference in performance levels. It is also reasonable to expect La Liga to follow; this is widely considered to be the highest-quality league in the world, and therefore players who play well in that should find that they are of sufficient quality to play in the Premier League.
It is interesting to see that players moving into the Premier League from the Championship play at closer to their previous level than those from Serie A and the Bundesliga, both highly-regarded leagues. In other words, a player playing at a high level in the Championship is more likely to keep up that form in the Premier League than someone from the top leagues in Italy and Germany. Particularly given the recent success of German sides, this is a surprising result.
Significantly behind the other leagues is the Eredivisie, where signings have performed significantly below their level in the Netherlands. This is partly driven by players who have particularly struggled in England since moving, such as Depay at Manchester United, Janssen at Tottenham Hotspur or Henriksen at Hull City. It is also driven by players who was performing at an extremely high level in the Netherlands, whose performances in England have been good, but less spectacular, such as Southampton's Pellé and Tadic or Newcastle United's Wijnaldum.
Who were the best and worst adapters?
We can also use this method to look at the transfers in our data set to find the best and worst players at adapting to the Premier League. Click the name of each division below to see the five best and worst adapters from each league. The Russian Premier League is left out, since there are only five transfers in total.
As we would expect, the English Premier League has the smallest difference in performance levels. It is also reasonable to expect La Liga to follow; this is widely considered to be the highest-quality league in the world, and therefore players who play well in that should find that they are of sufficient quality to play in the Premier League.
It is interesting to see that players moving into the Premier League from the Championship play at closer to their previous level than those from Serie A and the Bundesliga, both highly-regarded leagues. In other words, a player playing at a high level in the Championship is more likely to keep up that form in the Premier League than someone from the top leagues in Italy and Germany. Particularly given the recent success of German sides, this is a surprising result.
Significantly behind the other leagues is the Eredivisie, where signings have performed significantly below their level in the Netherlands. This is partly driven by players who have particularly struggled in England since moving, such as Depay at Manchester United, Janssen at Tottenham Hotspur or Henriksen at Hull City. It is also driven by players who was performing at an extremely high level in the Netherlands, whose performances in England have been good, but less spectacular, such as Southampton's Pellé and Tadic or Newcastle United's Wijnaldum.
Who were the best and worst adapters?
We can also use this method to look at the transfers in our data set to find the best and worst players at adapting to the Premier League. Click the name of each division below to see the five best and worst adapters from each league. The Russian Premier League is left out, since there are only five transfers in total.
Premier League
Best adapters
Player |
Previous club |
New club |
Old rating |
New rating |
Difference |
Moses, V |
Liverpool |
Stoke City |
6.35 |
7.45 |
+1.10 |
Townsend, A |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Newcastle United |
6.76 |
7.35 |
+0.59 |
Sigurdsson, G |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Swansea City |
6.56 |
7.09 |
+0.53 |
Benteke, C |
Liverpool |
Crystal Palace |
6.83 |
7.35 |
0.52 |
Bertrand, R |
Aston Villa |
Southampton |
6.44 |
6.95 |
+0.51 |
Worst adapters
Player |
Previous club |
New club |
Old rating |
New rating |
Difference |
Moses, V |
Stoke City |
West Ham United |
7.45 |
6.52 |
-0.93 |
Ayew, A |
Swansea City |
West Ham United |
6.98 |
6.24 |
-0.74 |
Sidwell, S |
Fulham |
Stoke City |
7.04 |
6.30 |
-0.74 |
Lambert, R |
Southampton |
Liverpool |
7.03 |
6.33 |
-0.70 |
Rémy, L |
Newcastle United |
Chelsea |
7.15 |
6.45 |
-0.70 |
Championship
Best adapters
Player |
Previous club |
New club |
Old rating |
New rating |
Difference |
Afobe, B |
Wolves |
Bournemouth |
6.42 |
7.10 |
+0.68 |
Grant, L |
Derby County |
Stoke City |
6.72 |
6.99 |
+0.27 |
Phillips, M |
QPR |
West Bromwich Albion |
6.99 |
7.13 |
+0.14 |
Boyd, G |
Hull City |
Burnley |
6.75 |
6.85 |
+0.10 |
Fábio |
Cardiff City |
Middlesbrough |
6.94 |
6.99 |
+0.05 |
Worst adapters
Player |
Previous club |
New club |
Old rating |
New rating |
Difference |
Sako, B |
Wolves |
Crystal Palace |
7.31 |
6.54 |
-0.77 |
Gestede, R |
Blackburn Rovers |
Aston Villa |
7.56 |
6.83 |
-0.73 |
Sandro |
QPR |
West Bromwich Albion |
6.99 |
6.39 |
-0.60 |
Murray, G |
Reading |
Bournemouth |
6.96 |
6.38 |
-0.58 |
Hennessey, W |
Wolves |
Crystal Palace |
7.01 |
6.48 |
-0.53 |
Ligue 1
Best adapters
Player |
Previous club |
New club |
Old rating |
New rating |
Difference |
Martial, A |
Monaco |
Manchester United |
6.70 |
7.11 |
+0.41 |
Payet, D |
Marseille |
West Ham United |
7.27 |
7.67 |
+0.40 |
Cabaye, Y |
PSG |
Crystal Palace |
6.68 |
7.05 |
+0.37 |
Lovren, D |
Lyon |
Southampton |
6.95 |
7.32 |
+0.37 |
Kanté, N |
Caen |
Leicester City |
7.36 |
7.61 |
+0.25 |
Worst adapters
Player |
Previous club |
New club |
Old rating |
New rating |
Difference |
Thauvin, F |
Marseille |
Newcastle United |
6.94 |
6.20 |
-0.74 |
Manquillo, J |
Marseille |
Sunderland |
7.06 |
6.41 |
-0.65 |
Batshuayi, M |
Marseille |
Chelsea |
6.74 |
6.16 |
-0.58 |
Stambouli, B |
Montpellier |
Tottenham Hotspur |
7.04 |
6.52 |
-0.52 |
Ibrahimovic, Z |
PSG |
Manchester United |
7.95 |
7.44 |
-0.51 |
Bundesliga
Best adapters
Player |
Previous club |
New club |
Old rating |
New rating |
Difference |
Pocognoli, S |
Hannover 96 |
West Bromwich Albion |
6.62 |
6.91 |
+0.29 |
Fuchs, C |
Schalke 04 |
Leicester City |
7.04 |
7.29 |
+0.25 |
Romeu, O |
VfB Stuttgart |
Southampton |
6.72 |
6.90 |
+0.18 |
Arnautovic, M |
Werder Bremen |
Stoke City |
6.80 |
6.95 |
+0.15 |
Kirchhoff, J |
Schalke 04 |
Sunderland |
6.78 |
6.88 |
+0.10 |
Worst adapters
Player |
Previous club |
New club |
Old rating |
New rating |
Difference |
Schürrle, A |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Chelsea |
7.53 |
6.79 |
-0.74 |
Mkhitaryan, H |
Borussia Dortmund |
Manchester United |
7.62 |
6.93 |
-0.69 |
Schweinsteiger, B |
Bayern Munich |
Manchester United |
7.47 |
6.78 |
-0.69 |
Joselu |
Hannover 96 |
Stoke City |
7.21 |
6.59 |
-0.62 |
Rahman, A |
FC Augsberg |
Chelsea |
7.37 |
6.75 |
-0.62 |
Serie A
Best adapters
Player |
Previous club |
New club |
Old rating |
New rating |
Difference |
Alonso, M |
Fiorentina |
Chelsea |
7.12 |
7.51 |
+0.39 |
Isla, M |
Juventus |
QPR |
6.67 |
6.98 |
+0.31 |
Kozák, L |
Lazio |
Aston Villa |
6.44 |
6.61 |
+0.17 |
Shaqiri, X |
Inter Milan |
Stoke City |
6.69 |
6.85 |
+0.16 |
Pogba, P |
Juventus |
Manchester United |
7.71 |
7.72 |
+0.01 |
Worst adapters
Player |
Previous club |
New club |
Old rating |
New rating |
Difference |
Cuadrado, J |
Fiorentina |
Chelsea |
7.61 |
6.37 |
-1.24 |
Balotelli, M |
AC Milan |
Liverpool |
7.59 |
6.54 |
-1.05 |
Álvarez, R |
Inter Milan |
Sunderland |
7.15 |
6.48 |
-0.67 |
Jovetic, S |
Fiorentina |
Manchester City |
7.37 |
6.82 |
-0.55 |
Suárez, M |
Fiorentina |
Watford |
6.91 |
6.38 |
-0.53 |
eredivisie
Best adapters
Player |
Previous club |
New club |
Old rating |
New rating |
Difference |
Martina, C |
FC Twente |
Southampton |
6.75 |
6.72 |
-0.03 |
van Aanholt, P |
Vitesse |
Sunderland |
7.12 |
7.06 |
-0.06 |
Blind, D |
Ajax |
Manchester United |
7.33 |
7.19 |
-0.14 |
Janmaat, D |
Feyenoord |
Newcastle United |
7.22 |
6.88 |
-0.34 |
Wijnaldum, G |
PSV Eindhoven |
Newcastle United |
7.37 |
6.91 |
-0.46 |
Worst adapters
Player |
Previous club |
New club |
Old rating |
New rating |
Difference |
Depay, M |
PSV Eindhoven |
Manchester United |
7.83 |
6.33 |
-1.50 |
Janssen, V |
AZ Alkmaar |
Tottenham Hotspur |
7.52 |
6.23 |
-1.29 |
Pellé, G |
Feyenoord |
Southampton |
7.97 |
7.05 |
-0.92 |
Henriksen, M |
AZ Alkmaar |
Hull City |
7.14 |
6.22 |
-0.92 |
Tadic, D |
FC Twente |
Southampton |
7.80 |
6.95 |
-0.85 |
La Liga
Best adapters
Player |
Previous club |
New club |
Old rating |
New rating |
Difference |
Sánchez, A |
Barcelona |
Arsenal |
7.34 |
7.80 |
+0.46 |
Llorente, F |
Sevilla |
Swansea City |
6.59 |
6.92 |
+0.33 |
Alderweireld, T |
Atlético Madrid |
Southampton |
6.87 |
7.07 |
+0.20 |
Barragán, A |
Valencia |
Middlesbrough |
6.83 |
7.02 |
+0.19 |
Costa, D |
Atlético Madrid |
Chelsea |
7.20 |
7.37 |
+0.17 |
Worst adapters
Player |
Previous club |
New club |
Old rating |
New rating |
Difference |
Aspas, I |
Celta Vigo |
Liverpool |
7.14 |
6.21 |
-0.93 |
Soldado, R |
Valencia |
Tottenham Hotspur |
7.10 |
6.39 |
-0.71 |
Bastón |
Eibar |
Swansea City |
6.78 |
6.11 |
-0.67 |
Nolito |
Celta Vigo |
Manchester City |
7.34 |
6.77 |
-0.57 |
Bravo, C |
Barcelona |
Manchester City |
6.87 |
6.35 |
-0.52 |
The most remarkable thing to note is that Victor Moses appears to be the best and worst adapters at a new club for players signed from Premier League rivals, thanks to a freakishly good season on loan with Stoke City. Other notable players are Memphis Depay, whose difference is the largest of any player in the data set, signifying how poorly he adapted to his move to Old Trafford.
Summary
After studying the effects of the price tag on a player's performance, now we can consider his previous performance as well to identify which signings have performed above and below expectations. Next time we will be bringing this altogether in order to rate each club's recent transfer activity.
Summary
After studying the effects of the price tag on a player's performance, now we can consider his previous performance as well to identify which signings have performed above and below expectations. Next time we will be bringing this altogether in order to rate each club's recent transfer activity.
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