by Dr Adrian Worton
Over recent weeks we have been using a data set of transfers made by Premier League clubs over the last four seasons. From this data, we have been able to give a measure of how good-value a signing has been, which nations have provided the best players, and which players have adapted the best to the Premier League.
Now we will be tying this together by looking at the individual clubs within our data set to see which ones have conducted the best business.
Over recent weeks we have been using a data set of transfers made by Premier League clubs over the last four seasons. From this data, we have been able to give a measure of how good-value a signing has been, which nations have provided the best players, and which players have adapted the best to the Premier League.
Now we will be tying this together by looking at the individual clubs within our data set to see which ones have conducted the best business.
Value for money
We will look at which clubs have got the best performances from their players, given how much they paid for them. For each club's signings (excluding free and loan deals), we estimate the level they should reach, using our previously-derived formula:
We will look at which clubs have got the best performances from their players, given how much they paid for them. For each club's signings (excluding free and loan deals), we estimate the level they should reach, using our previously-derived formula:
r = -0.00002f^2 + 0.0111f + 6.6776
For each player, we then compare this expected value with the level they did in fact reach. This is then averaged for each player signed by each club. The results are shown below:
It is a huge surprise to see that QPR, a team noted for their misfiring scattergun approach to transfers, tops the pile. However, it should be noted that QPR only had three transfers count for this graph (Caulker, Fer and Sandro), who all performed at a good level. At the other end, Bournemouth are not considered to have performed notably poorly in their transfer dealings, so it is a surprise to see them last. Again, this is primarily caused by a low sample size, with only four players contributing to the average score. Of these, two were notable flops (Murray and Ibe), which was enough to put the club bottom.
Of the clubs with sufficient transfers within the data set to merit examining, the most notable are Arsenal, whose average of 0.22 is more than double that of the next-highest team. Their signings include Alexis Sanchez, whose performance level of 7.80 was the highest of all players in the data set. Signings such as Özil, Debuchy and Gabriel all also out-performed the level their fees suggested.
You can use the widget below to select a team and see how each of its transfers were rated. Just use the drop-down list which appears when you select the team name at the top.
Of the clubs with sufficient transfers within the data set to merit examining, the most notable are Arsenal, whose average of 0.22 is more than double that of the next-highest team. Their signings include Alexis Sanchez, whose performance level of 7.80 was the highest of all players in the data set. Signings such as Özil, Debuchy and Gabriel all also out-performed the level their fees suggested.
You can use the widget below to select a team and see how each of its transfers were rated. Just use the drop-down list which appears when you select the team name at the top.
Summary
Arsene Wenger's transfer policy at Arsenal has been the centre of much discussion over the last few seasons. However, we have found that his side appear to be the best-performing side in terms of value for money of any team in the Premier League (barring QPR, who only had three transfers recorded).
Needless to say, each club had its own hits and misses, and the greater spending power of the larger clubs means they can absorb the impact of the misses much easier. Next time we will be looking at how a team's performance in the transfer window affected their position in the league.
Arsene Wenger's transfer policy at Arsenal has been the centre of much discussion over the last few seasons. However, we have found that his side appear to be the best-performing side in terms of value for money of any team in the Premier League (barring QPR, who only had three transfers recorded).
Needless to say, each club had its own hits and misses, and the greater spending power of the larger clubs means they can absorb the impact of the misses much easier. Next time we will be looking at how a team's performance in the transfer window affected their position in the league.
RSS Feed