by Dr Adrian Worton
Having collected data on Premier League transfers from the 2013/14 - 2016/17 seasons, we were able to predict a player's level of performance given his transfer fee. This gives us a way of rating transfers on how close to their expected level of performance the player played at.
This time we will use this method to look at the nations where the signings came from. This will allow us to see which nations have supplied the best-value players to the Premier League.
Having collected data on Premier League transfers from the 2013/14 - 2016/17 seasons, we were able to predict a player's level of performance given his transfer fee. This gives us a way of rating transfers on how close to their expected level of performance the player played at.
This time we will use this method to look at the nations where the signings came from. This will allow us to see which nations have supplied the best-value players to the Premier League.
The data
As with our previous article, the data set is made from all signings made by Premier League teams during the given time period. Only players which have played at least 10 matches for their new club are counted, and their rating on WhoScored is taken to give their level of performance.
The nations
Only nations which have supplied at least five players are counted. These are Belgium (5 players), France (32 players), Germany (30 players), Italy (28 players), the Netherlands (20 players), Portugal (12 players), Russia (7 players), Scotland (6 players) and Spain (43 players).
Additionally, we include domestic transfers, splitting them into Premiership (138 players) and Championship (40 players, including one transfer from a League One side).
The remaining nations are split into three groups: Western Europe (8 players), Eastern Europe (11 players) and the Americas (6 players). The nations which make up these groups are as follows:
Which nations provide the best value?
For each nation, we take the average of each player's rating for their new club, and compare it to the rating that should be expected given their transfer fee (using the formula found last time). Below you can see a plot of these ratings:
As with our previous article, the data set is made from all signings made by Premier League teams during the given time period. Only players which have played at least 10 matches for their new club are counted, and their rating on WhoScored is taken to give their level of performance.
The nations
Only nations which have supplied at least five players are counted. These are Belgium (5 players), France (32 players), Germany (30 players), Italy (28 players), the Netherlands (20 players), Portugal (12 players), Russia (7 players), Scotland (6 players) and Spain (43 players).
Additionally, we include domestic transfers, splitting them into Premiership (138 players) and Championship (40 players, including one transfer from a League One side).
The remaining nations are split into three groups: Western Europe (8 players), Eastern Europe (11 players) and the Americas (6 players). The nations which make up these groups are as follows:
- Western Europe: Austria, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland
- Eastern Europe: Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine
- The Americas: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico
Which nations provide the best value?
For each nation, we take the average of each player's rating for their new club, and compare it to the rating that should be expected given their transfer fee (using the formula found last time). Below you can see a plot of these ratings:
Nations which appear above the diagonal line have provided players who have under-performed for their new club, whilst those below the line have over-performed.
We can see that the Western Europe and Eastern Europe groups have provided players that have performed significantly poorly for their new clubs. Other nations which appear to provide poor value are the Netherlands and Italy, along with the Championship. There are three nations which clearly have provided the best-value players to the Premier League: Belgium, France and Scotland.
Below is a table showing the full data for each league:
We can see that the Western Europe and Eastern Europe groups have provided players that have performed significantly poorly for their new clubs. Other nations which appear to provide poor value are the Netherlands and Italy, along with the Championship. There are three nations which clearly have provided the best-value players to the Premier League: Belgium, France and Scotland.
Below is a table showing the full data for each league:
Nation/league |
Average price |
Average rating |
Average predicted rating |
Difference |
Scotland |
£7.95m |
6.83 |
6.76 |
+0.064 |
Belgium |
£9.11m |
6.83 |
6.78 |
+0.057 |
France |
£10.56m |
6.83 |
6.79 |
+0.044 |
Germany |
£13.06m |
6.82 |
6.81 |
+0.007 |
Premeirship |
£8.08m |
6.77 |
6.76 |
+0.005 |
The Americas |
£8.99m |
6.78 |
6.78 |
+0.004 |
Spain |
£14.18m |
6.82 |
6.83 |
-0.006 |
Russia |
10.51m |
6.77 |
6.79 |
-0.024 |
Portugal |
£4.24m |
6.80 |
6.83 |
-0.030 |
Championship |
£4.24m |
6.67 |
6.72 |
-0.057 |
Italy |
£11.86m |
6.74 |
6.80 |
-0.057 |
Netherlands |
£9.44m |
6.72 |
6.78 |
-0.064 |
Eastern Europe |
£7.06m |
6.57 |
6.75 |
-0.179 |
Western Europe |
£5.74m |
6.55 |
6.74 |
-0.187 |
From this, we can see that it is Scotland which has provided the best-value transfers to the Premier League. This is primarily driven by the excellent signings made by Southampton from Celtic. Of course, this means that the bad news for Celtic is that they possibly could have got more for their exports. Of the major footballing leagues, it appears that France provide better value than alternatives in Germany, Italy and Spain.
Summary
By using our previously-identified method for calculating how good-value a transfer is, we are able to identify which leagues appear to be the best for getting new players into the Premier League. We found that the best value was to be found in Scotland, which makes sense - the style of football and culture are similar, and players at Celtic get exposure to playing in the biggest club competition in the world. However, the worst value was found from smaller European leagues, who also have the advantage of the Champions League.
Remember that the data used to create this list only included players who had played at least ten matches. It doesn't include players who were signed but weren't deemed good enough to even play that many - this may change the results, but nevertheless gives a good idea of where the best value is to be found.
Foreign leagues will be the theme of our next article as well, as we use player's past performances to measure how well they adapt to the Premier League.
Summary
By using our previously-identified method for calculating how good-value a transfer is, we are able to identify which leagues appear to be the best for getting new players into the Premier League. We found that the best value was to be found in Scotland, which makes sense - the style of football and culture are similar, and players at Celtic get exposure to playing in the biggest club competition in the world. However, the worst value was found from smaller European leagues, who also have the advantage of the Champions League.
Remember that the data used to create this list only included players who had played at least ten matches. It doesn't include players who were signed but weren't deemed good enough to even play that many - this may change the results, but nevertheless gives a good idea of where the best value is to be found.
Foreign leagues will be the theme of our next article as well, as we use player's past performances to measure how well they adapt to the Premier League.
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