You may have noticed a dearth of posts on here recently. In fact, the Six Nations model we had been using to track the tournament stopped abruptly. This is due to a remarkably hectic time in my life.
However, upon seeing odds available for all matches of Euro2016 it was impossible to resist the urge to create a new simulator. The simulator can be found in full here.
Who will win?
Using our usual method of running the model 1,000 times to gain an idea of what might happen during the tournament, we get the following result:
With a smaller roster of nations competing, the space is opened for more unusual names, such as Austria, Croatia and Russia, to enter the tournament with an outside chance of causing an upset.
How will my team do?
In order to see the exact breakdown for each nation, use the embedded sheet below to select a nation (the top cell will provide a drop-down list), and see how exactly they fared during the 1,000 simulations.
Using pre-existing methods, it is relatively easy to generate a full tournament from a limited number of odds. The full simulator can be found on the Euro 2016 page.
Now, to my actual work...
OddsChecker - for odds of all group matches.
Wikipedia - for the full details on the draw and rules of the tournament.