by Dr Adrian Worton
In our last article we looked at the factors that influence a player having a high average shot time. Investigating the accepted belief that players (particularly Neil Robertson) play better when they play fast, we did find a link between the two.
However, our contention is that this in the wrong-way round. When players play well, they put together more breaks, which consist of shots that require a lower shot time, bringing the average shot time (AST) down.
In our last article we looked at the factors that influence a player having a high average shot time. Investigating the accepted belief that players (particularly Neil Robertson) play better when they play fast, we did find a link between the two.
However, our contention is that this in the wrong-way round. When players play well, they put together more breaks, which consist of shots that require a lower shot time, bringing the average shot time (AST) down.
To fully illustrate this point, we have broken a single match down to individual shots (a level of data that isn't usually available). Since the conversation of speed vs quality centres on Neil Robertson, we have picked his match at the 2020 UK Championship against Mark Selby (a 6-2 victory for Neil). We will only be looking at Neil's AST in this match.
Our measurement of shot time is from when the ball stops moving from the previous shot, until it ends moving at the end of the current shot, as this gives the closest approximation of the method World Snooker Tour use.
Our measurement of shot time is from when the ball stops moving from the previous shot, until it ends moving at the end of the current shot, as this gives the closest approximation of the method World Snooker Tour use.
Frame 1
Robertson's first shot is a shot-to-nothing after a poor safety from Selby. Neil makes the pot (36 seconds) but doesn't land on a colour so rolls up behind the yellow (13s).
Three more times in this frame Neil earns a chance with his safety, takes it, but fails to land on a colour and has to play safe. In total here Neil plays a further 9 shots at an average of 38.7s.
In the last of these shots, Neil leaves Mark tight behind the green, and in his escape Mark leaves a red on. Neil pots it (20s) and finally has a colour to go for. He pots a delicate black (16s) and earns a great chance in among the balls.
In the balls he adds a further 67 to wrap up the frame (18 shots; ave 18.3s) before missing a red that he had to play using the long rest (46s).
Score: Robertson 1-0 Selby. Robertson AST: 25.3 seconds
Below is a graph of all of Neil's shots during this frame. The black line shows how his AST changes as the frame progresses. The red dotted line indicates the 20-second mark.
Robertson's first shot is a shot-to-nothing after a poor safety from Selby. Neil makes the pot (36 seconds) but doesn't land on a colour so rolls up behind the yellow (13s).
Three more times in this frame Neil earns a chance with his safety, takes it, but fails to land on a colour and has to play safe. In total here Neil plays a further 9 shots at an average of 38.7s.
In the last of these shots, Neil leaves Mark tight behind the green, and in his escape Mark leaves a red on. Neil pots it (20s) and finally has a colour to go for. He pots a delicate black (16s) and earns a great chance in among the balls.
In the balls he adds a further 67 to wrap up the frame (18 shots; ave 18.3s) before missing a red that he had to play using the long rest (46s).
Score: Robertson 1-0 Selby. Robertson AST: 25.3 seconds
Below is a graph of all of Neil's shots during this frame. The black line shows how his AST changes as the frame progresses. The red dotted line indicates the 20-second mark.
We can see that once Neil is constructing the frame-winning break, his AST goes down from around 37 seconds and steadily decreases to 24.6, before the final shot increases it to 25.3.
So, say Neil had missed with the pot he made in shot 10 and left a chance for Selby, who had instead won the frame, Neil's AST for the frame would have been about 12 seconds higher than it actually ended up being.
Frame 2
Just as in the first frame, Neil has the better of Mark in the opening safety battle, and twice pots a red without landing on a colour. In this opening part of the frame Neil played 9 shots at an average of 34.0 seconds.
Mark misjudges a long pot and leaves Neil a medium distance pot which he sinks. This is followed by a blue and red that require some judging. These three shots take an average of 37.3 seconds.
He is now able to build a break, and he goes on to clear the table with a masterful 122 break. The remaining 29 shots in the break take an average of 15.7 seconds.
Score: Robertson 2-0 Selby. Robertson AST: 21.3 seconds
So, say Neil had missed with the pot he made in shot 10 and left a chance for Selby, who had instead won the frame, Neil's AST for the frame would have been about 12 seconds higher than it actually ended up being.
Frame 2
Just as in the first frame, Neil has the better of Mark in the opening safety battle, and twice pots a red without landing on a colour. In this opening part of the frame Neil played 9 shots at an average of 34.0 seconds.
Mark misjudges a long pot and leaves Neil a medium distance pot which he sinks. This is followed by a blue and red that require some judging. These three shots take an average of 37.3 seconds.
He is now able to build a break, and he goes on to clear the table with a masterful 122 break. The remaining 29 shots in the break take an average of 15.7 seconds.
Score: Robertson 2-0 Selby. Robertson AST: 21.3 seconds
Once again, Neil has an AST in the mid-30s (34.8 at its peak) early on, before a break where nearly all shots are under 20 seconds brings that average down to a final value of 21.3. So again, if Neil had ultimately lost the safety battle and Mark had cleared up instead, Neil's AST would be around 14 seconds higher.
Frame 3
Neil's first three shots in this frame are all safeties, with an average time of 28.7 seconds.
When Mark misjudges a containing safety towards the black cushion, Neil is able to pot a red to middle and put together a break of 63 (19 shots; ave 19.2s), before missing a simple frame ball black (10s).
Mark is only able to make 6 points in reply before playing safe. The resulting safety battle sees Neil play 3 shots at an average of 49.7 seconds.
Mark leaves a red to middle which Neil pots (39s) followed by the pink (20s) before missing a red (19s), with the frame already won.
Score: Robertson 3-0 Selby. Robertson AST: 24.0 seconds
It is worth noting that Mark Selby's AST is 44 seconds at this point
Frame 3
Neil's first three shots in this frame are all safeties, with an average time of 28.7 seconds.
When Mark misjudges a containing safety towards the black cushion, Neil is able to pot a red to middle and put together a break of 63 (19 shots; ave 19.2s), before missing a simple frame ball black (10s).
Mark is only able to make 6 points in reply before playing safe. The resulting safety battle sees Neil play 3 shots at an average of 49.7 seconds.
Mark leaves a red to middle which Neil pots (39s) followed by the pink (20s) before missing a red (19s), with the frame already won.
Score: Robertson 3-0 Selby. Robertson AST: 24.0 seconds
It is worth noting that Mark Selby's AST is 44 seconds at this point
Because Neil played his early safeties relatively quickly, this frame is almost in reverse; his AST is down to 20.4 seconds when he is on his first break, but because he misses that black, he has to play out a safety exchange that could have been avoided. This raises his AST by 4 seconds.
Frame 4
This frame starts with a safety battle that results in a re-rack (3 shots, ave 37.0s). When the frame restarts Neil ultimately loses the safety battle to give Mark his first good chance of the match (3 shots, ave 22.0s).
Mark makes 46 points before playing safe. Another safety exchange follows, with Neil ultimately unable to avoid an unwanted cannon from a very difficult position (4 shots, ave 47.8s).
Whilst Mark only adds 12 more points, Neil again leaves a red on with his next safety (35s) and Mark goes on to clinch the frame.
Score: Robertson 3-1 Selby. Robertson AST: 36.6 seconds
Frame 4
This frame starts with a safety battle that results in a re-rack (3 shots, ave 37.0s). When the frame restarts Neil ultimately loses the safety battle to give Mark his first good chance of the match (3 shots, ave 22.0s).
Mark makes 46 points before playing safe. Another safety exchange follows, with Neil ultimately unable to avoid an unwanted cannon from a very difficult position (4 shots, ave 47.8s).
Whilst Mark only adds 12 more points, Neil again leaves a red on with his next safety (35s) and Mark goes on to clinch the frame.
Score: Robertson 3-1 Selby. Robertson AST: 36.6 seconds
As Neil fails to get on the board in this frame, we are just left with the AST from his safety battle. Because safeties generally take longer, this is a high average of 36.6 seconds in the end. Neil could easily have potted the red he attempted for shot 9 and cleared up, which would have seen his AST go down just as in previous frame.
Frame 5
The opening safety battle sees Neil play 5 shots at an average of 33.0 seconds. It looks like he has kept things safe but Mark finds a characteristic plant and makes 67 before missing another plant. This leaves Neil only able to tie, and a loose safety (57s) allows Mark to pot a red and win the frame.
Score: Robertson 3-2 Selby. Robertson AST: 37.0 seconds
Mark Selby's AST has now rapidly dropped to 26 seconds
Frame 5
The opening safety battle sees Neil play 5 shots at an average of 33.0 seconds. It looks like he has kept things safe but Mark finds a characteristic plant and makes 67 before missing another plant. This leaves Neil only able to tie, and a loose safety (57s) allows Mark to pot a red and win the frame.
Score: Robertson 3-2 Selby. Robertson AST: 37.0 seconds
Mark Selby's AST has now rapidly dropped to 26 seconds
As with the previous frame, Neil only has safeties in this frame, and so his AST is 37.0. Neil's AST for the match was 23.3 at the end of frame 3, but now stands at 25.2 after two difficult frames.
Frame 6
Neil is snookered from Mark's break-off, so plays off the side cushion into the pack (45s). Mark is able to pot a red but has no colour, so again snookers Neil, who again plays off the side cushion into the pack (24s). There follows a long safety battle (9 shots; ave 31.9s).
Ultimately, Mark leaves a long red and Neil pots it (27s). This is followed with a couple of fiddly shots (2 shots; ave 48.5s) to gain prime position. Neil adds 14 more points before missing a straightforward blue and leaving Mark in the balls (5 shots; ave 23.0s).
Mark makes 40 before playing safe. Neil feels forced into attempting a very difficult red down the right that he spectacularly pulls off (52s), which is followed by a few more delicate pots (3 shots; ave 41.0s).
Neil goes on to clear the table and win the frame with a break of 56 (10 shots; ave 15.6s).
Score: Robertson 4-2 Selby. Robertson AST: 27.5 seconds.
Frame 6
Neil is snookered from Mark's break-off, so plays off the side cushion into the pack (45s). Mark is able to pot a red but has no colour, so again snookers Neil, who again plays off the side cushion into the pack (24s). There follows a long safety battle (9 shots; ave 31.9s).
Ultimately, Mark leaves a long red and Neil pots it (27s). This is followed with a couple of fiddly shots (2 shots; ave 48.5s) to gain prime position. Neil adds 14 more points before missing a straightforward blue and leaving Mark in the balls (5 shots; ave 23.0s).
Mark makes 40 before playing safe. Neil feels forced into attempting a very difficult red down the right that he spectacularly pulls off (52s), which is followed by a few more delicate pots (3 shots; ave 41.0s).
Neil goes on to clear the table and win the frame with a break of 56 (10 shots; ave 15.6s).
Score: Robertson 4-2 Selby. Robertson AST: 27.5 seconds.
With difficult positional shots early on in both breaks, it isn't until late on in the frame that Neil is able to regularly hit shots at under 20s/shot. Therefore, despite this being a good frame from Neil (but not as good as, say, frame 2), his AST is a fairly poor 27.4 seconds.
Frame 7
From Neil's break-off Mark pots a spectacular long red and makes 21 before playing safe. Neil plays two safeties (ave 40.0s) after this.
He gets in with a long pot and goes on to compile an excellent 91 break, comprising 26 shots at an average of 21.8 seconds, before missing a brown (22s) to deny himself a chance at a century.
Score: Robertson 5-2 Selby. Robertson AST: 23.1 seconds.
Frame 7
From Neil's break-off Mark pots a spectacular long red and makes 21 before playing safe. Neil plays two safeties (ave 40.0s) after this.
He gets in with a long pot and goes on to compile an excellent 91 break, comprising 26 shots at an average of 21.8 seconds, before missing a brown (22s) to deny himself a chance at a century.
Score: Robertson 5-2 Selby. Robertson AST: 23.1 seconds.
The early safety and difficult positional shots for Neil in this frame sees his AST in the mid-30s again. Once he gets the break underway, only a few shots are over 20 seconds, and his AST gradually comes down to 22.3 seconds before the last two shots brings it up to 23.1.
Frame 8
The perfect frame for Neil, as he pots a long red from Mark's break-off and clears the table with a special 130 break.
The pace during the break wasn't particularly fast to begin with, with the first 20 seconds taking an average of 25.8 seconds, before he sped up with the frame and match secured, his final 16 shots seeing an average shot time of 11.6 seconds.
Score: Robertson 6-2 Selby. Robertson AST 19.5 seconds.
Frame 8
The perfect frame for Neil, as he pots a long red from Mark's break-off and clears the table with a special 130 break.
The pace during the break wasn't particularly fast to begin with, with the first 20 seconds taking an average of 25.8 seconds, before he sped up with the frame and match secured, his final 16 shots seeing an average shot time of 11.6 seconds.
Score: Robertson 6-2 Selby. Robertson AST 19.5 seconds.
You can clearly see the point where the frame and match becomes secure for Neil, as he plays out the final part of the frame with every shot below 20 seconds (and most below 12). Even in a perfect frame like this, Neil's AST only just dips below 20 seconds on the penultimate shot.
We can see the difference in time it takes to do each shot below:
We can see the difference in time it takes to do each shot below:
It should be noted that there were only 8 misses in the match from Neil
We can see how much lower pots are than safeties, with misses in between.
This makes intuitive sense. Most pots will follow a previous pot, and so the position is likely to be better than otherwise, and the player may already have planned what they are going to do for this shot. Misses, meanwhile, sometimes will be a shot-to-nothing, so very similar to a safety, or it may be a simple miss during a break, so more like a pot.
Creating this data is very labour-intensive (basically watching a match in full, with a stopwatch and occasionally rewinding/pausing), so this is currently the only shot-by-shot data we have. But what we can see is that if a performance involved more safeties than pots, these will raise the average shot time.
We've seen several players in interviews talking about how they can lower their average shot time, and the answer is simple - pot more and miss less. In other words, the idea that playing fast will lead you to play better is a falsehood.
Naturally, some players are faster than others and this shouldn't be taken as a defence of players whose season-long AST is over 30 seconds (which is the level at which World Snooker Tour define as slow).
Hopefully the work in this and the previous article serve to increase understanding of shot time data. It can be useful, but relying on it too much as a target metric seems futile.
This makes intuitive sense. Most pots will follow a previous pot, and so the position is likely to be better than otherwise, and the player may already have planned what they are going to do for this shot. Misses, meanwhile, sometimes will be a shot-to-nothing, so very similar to a safety, or it may be a simple miss during a break, so more like a pot.
Creating this data is very labour-intensive (basically watching a match in full, with a stopwatch and occasionally rewinding/pausing), so this is currently the only shot-by-shot data we have. But what we can see is that if a performance involved more safeties than pots, these will raise the average shot time.
We've seen several players in interviews talking about how they can lower their average shot time, and the answer is simple - pot more and miss less. In other words, the idea that playing fast will lead you to play better is a falsehood.
Naturally, some players are faster than others and this shouldn't be taken as a defence of players whose season-long AST is over 30 seconds (which is the level at which World Snooker Tour define as slow).
Hopefully the work in this and the previous article serve to increase understanding of shot time data. It can be useful, but relying on it too much as a target metric seems futile.
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