by Dr Adrian Worton
What drama we are seeing at the World Cup! In particular, late shows from both Brazil and Germany have seen them finally get into a good position for qualification. Meanwhile, a ridiculous Argentinian implosion sees them on the brink of elimination...
Or does it? Today we are going to look at all the permutations of the final rounds of group matches, and give a probability of each team progressing.
What drama we are seeing at the World Cup! In particular, late shows from both Brazil and Germany have seen them finally get into a good position for qualification. Meanwhile, a ridiculous Argentinian implosion sees them on the brink of elimination...
Or does it? Today we are going to look at all the permutations of the final rounds of group matches, and give a probability of each team progressing.
For each group we've re-calculated the odds for each match. Just click on the title of whichever group you are interested in to see its breakdown. For each scenario, the teams that would (or could, if it involves goal difference) qualify are listed, in order of how they would finish.
Group A (RUS, KSA, EGY, URU)
Obviously this isn't a very interesting group, with Russia and Uruguay already qualified. It's all down to whether Uruguay can beat the hosts as to whether they will steal top spot. With both teams likely to make changes, it's a hard one to predict.
This is each team's overall likelihoods:
This is each team's overall likelihoods:
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
Russia |
62.5% |
37.5% |
0% |
Uruguay |
37.5% |
62.5% |
0% |
Egypt |
0% |
0% |
100% |
Saudi Arabia |
0% |
0% |
100% |
Group B (POR, ESP, MAR, IRN)
In terms of progression, it's looking pretty safe for Spain and Portugal, really. What may be interesting is that if Spain and Portugal match each other's result, they will be dead tied on points, goal difference, goals scored and head-to-head. So it will then come down to disciplinary record. With the likes of Diego Costa and Pepe involved, that might be interesting...
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
Spain |
53.5% |
44.5% |
2.0% |
Portugal |
41.7% |
42.6% |
15.6% |
Iran |
4.8% |
12.9% |
82.3% |
Morocco |
0% |
0% |
100% |
Group C (FRA, AUS, PER, DEN)
This is a simple group. France are through, and will win the group as long as they don't lose to Denmark. If France win, then the only way Denmark fail to join them is if Australia beat Peru. Denmark could technically scrape through even if Australia win if their loss to France is high-scoring and by one goal. For the table below we are treating Australia as 75% likely to go through if they match Denmark's points total.
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
France |
78.4% |
21.6% |
0% |
Denmark |
21.6% |
68.4% |
10.0% |
Australia |
0% |
10.0% |
90.0% |
Peru |
0% |
0% |
100% |
Group D (ARG, ISL, CRO, NGA)
Nigeria's win against Iceland has given Argentina a good lifeline in this group. In fact, as the table below will show, they are still the most likely team to progress with Croatia. If Iceland beat Croatia, we'll have some kind of tie. We'll take goal difference into account for these cases. If Nigeria win we are going to say there's a 90% chance of Croatia winning the group. If Nigeria and Argentina draw, then we'll say there's a 60% chance of Nigeria pipping Iceland. And if Argentina win then we'll say it's 50%-50% between them and Iceland.
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
Croatia |
99.6% |
0.4% |
0% |
Argentina |
0% |
52.7% |
47.3% |
Nigeria |
0.4% |
36.1% |
63.4% |
Iceland |
0% |
10.8% |
89.2% |
Group E (BRA, SUI, CRC, SRB)
Coutinho's late poacher's goal has rescued Brazil from what may have been a prickly situation. But it's Switzerland who are in a better position to qualify for the next round, as every scenario will see them have some chance of qualifying. With Brazil's goal difference marginally better than Switzerland's, if both teams win or lose, then we'll give Brazil a 60% chance of finishing above Switzerland. Should the Swiss and Serbs finish level then we'll say there's a 55% chance it will go in Switzerland's favour (thanks to head-to-head).
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
Switzerland |
32.5% |
64.3% |
3.2% |
Brazil |
61.2% |
26.8% |
12.0% |
Serbia |
6.3% |
8.9% |
84.8% |
Costa Rica |
0% |
0% |
100% |
Group F (GER, MEX, SWE, KOR)
What a glorious mess! This is why I love 4-team groups. There's two very enticing scenarios, which very deftly show why I get so annoyed when commentators say a team will go through if they secure their second win! The three-team tied scenarios are too messy to consider, so we'll say each team has an equal chance there. For the two-team tie we'll say Germany are 75% likely to finish above Sweden as they'd need to lose out on goals scored.
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
Mexico |
78.0% |
14.2% |
7.8% |
Germany |
7.8% |
72.8% |
19.4% |
Sweden |
14.2% |
12.0% |
73.7% |
South Korea |
0% |
1.0% |
99.0% |
Group G (BEL, PAN, TUN, ENG)
One the one hand, this is another dead group, like Group A, with England and Belgium through already. But on the other hand, this is an absolute dream for a tournament-structure nerd like me, because we have the incredibly unusual situation that England and Belgium are dead tied for everything except yellow cards (Belgium 3, England 2). So as it stands, England will win the group with a draw, but one extra yellow for England and it's down to the holy grail - drawing of lots! An added complication in this group is that there is a very strong argument that finishing second is better, although such an argument seems to make all the ex-pros really angry. All those ex-pros who have never got beyond the quarter-finals of a World Cup...
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
Belgium |
51.2% |
48.8% |
0% |
England |
48.8% |
51.2% |
0% |
Tunisia |
0% |
0% |
100% |
Panama |
0% |
0% |
100% |
Group H (POL, SEN, COL, JPN)
Group H always seemed like a close one, and going into the final game it certainly looks to be that way. Seeds Poland are out, whilst Japan look to be in a good position. This leaves the real battle to be between Senegal and Colombia, and this is extremely tight. In fact, it's Colombia who emerge as marginal second-favourites to go through, but only by 0.4%. Excitingly, we have another potential tie situation, as Japan and Senegal are currently dead level on everything except yellow cards (Japan 3, Senegal 5).
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
Japan |
53.0% |
30.7% |
16.3% |
Colombia |
30.8% |
27.5% |
41.7% |
Senegal |
31.3% |
26.6% |
42.1% |
Poland |
0% |
0% |
100% |
In our previous update we considered how likely it was that one of the 'big eight' would go out. This is how that stands now:
So all eight teams remain favourites to progress (three already have). The chance of no big teams going out is 30.8%, which remains low.
Summary
Hopefully this gives you an idea of where the teams stand going into the final game. Sadly, all the favourites are still most likely to progress - but as we've seen, an upset isn't far around the bend. And we're now at the stage where just one upset will see a team fall out of the tournament in spectacular fashion. With Argentina, Brazil and Germany all not assured of their place through yet, it should be very exciting!
Our World Cup simulator has been updated to include the results up until the end of the second round of group games.
- Argentina 47.3%
- Germany 19.4%
- Portugal 15.6%
- Brazil 12.0%
- Spain 2.0%
- Belgium 0%
- England 0%
- France 0%
So all eight teams remain favourites to progress (three already have). The chance of no big teams going out is 30.8%, which remains low.
Summary
Hopefully this gives you an idea of where the teams stand going into the final game. Sadly, all the favourites are still most likely to progress - but as we've seen, an upset isn't far around the bend. And we're now at the stage where just one upset will see a team fall out of the tournament in spectacular fashion. With Argentina, Brazil and Germany all not assured of their place through yet, it should be very exciting!
Our World Cup simulator has been updated to include the results up until the end of the second round of group games.
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