What drama we are seeing at the World Cup! In particular, late shows from both Brazil and Germany have seen them finally get into a good position for qualification. Meanwhile, a ridiculous Argentinian implosion sees them on the brink of elimination...
Or does it? Today we are going to look at all the permutations of the final rounds of group matches, and give a probability of each team progressing.
This is each team's overall likelihoods:
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
Russia |
62.5% |
37.5% |
0% |
Uruguay |
37.5% |
62.5% |
0% |
Egypt |
0% |
0% |
100% |
Saudi Arabia |
0% |
0% |
100% |
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
Spain |
53.5% |
44.5% |
2.0% |
Portugal |
41.7% |
42.6% |
15.6% |
Iran |
4.8% |
12.9% |
82.3% |
Morocco |
0% |
0% |
100% |
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
France |
78.4% |
21.6% |
0% |
Denmark |
21.6% |
68.4% |
10.0% |
Australia |
0% |
10.0% |
90.0% |
Peru |
0% |
0% |
100% |
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
Croatia |
99.6% |
0.4% |
0% |
Argentina |
0% |
52.7% |
47.3% |
Nigeria |
0.4% |
36.1% |
63.4% |
Iceland |
0% |
10.8% |
89.2% |
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
Switzerland |
32.5% |
64.3% |
3.2% |
Brazil |
61.2% |
26.8% |
12.0% |
Serbia |
6.3% |
8.9% |
84.8% |
Costa Rica |
0% |
0% |
100% |
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
Mexico |
78.0% |
14.2% |
7.8% |
Germany |
7.8% |
72.8% |
19.4% |
Sweden |
14.2% |
12.0% |
73.7% |
South Korea |
0% |
1.0% |
99.0% |
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
Belgium |
51.2% |
48.8% |
0% |
England |
48.8% |
51.2% |
0% |
Tunisia |
0% |
0% |
100% |
Panama |
0% |
0% |
100% |
Team |
1st % |
2nd % |
Eliminated |
Japan |
53.0% |
30.7% |
16.3% |
Colombia |
30.8% |
27.5% |
41.7% |
Senegal |
31.3% |
26.6% |
42.1% |
Poland |
0% |
0% |
100% |
- Argentina 47.3%
- Germany 19.4%
- Portugal 15.6%
- Brazil 12.0%
- Spain 2.0%
- Belgium 0%
- England 0%
- France 0%
So all eight teams remain favourites to progress (three already have). The chance of no big teams going out is 30.8%, which remains low.
Summary
Hopefully this gives you an idea of where the teams stand going into the final game. Sadly, all the favourites are still most likely to progress - but as we've seen, an upset isn't far around the bend. And we're now at the stage where just one upset will see a team fall out of the tournament in spectacular fashion. With Argentina, Brazil and Germany all not assured of their place through yet, it should be very exciting!
Our World Cup simulator has been updated to include the results up until the end of the second round of group games.