Following last night's single-goal win for France over Germany, every team at the "2020" European Championship has played once. Subjectively speaking, the four teams that our simulator had as favourites - France, Belgium, England and Italy - all impressed, whilst things were slightly trickier for Spain, Germany and Portugal (despite the latter's scoreline).
As the tournament has progressed, we have been updating the results on the interactive version of our simulator. Now that every team has played once, we are going to have a little look to see how the results have affected each teams' chances in the tournament.
First of all, the overall tournament winner:
For Germany, defeat means their route out of the group may well result in a clash with England or Belgium, and their likelihood of winning falls accordingly. Surprisingly, Italy's probability of winning has taken a hit. I can only think this is because they are now far more likely to meet Belgium in the quarter finals.
Of the dark horses at the start of the tournament, only Switzerland avoided defeat.
Let's do the same now with the chances of progressing from the group stage:
The biggest changes are where the group's least-fancied side has picked up a win. Czechia, Finland and Slovakia all see big jumps thanks to their victories, and in turn Scotland, Denmark and Poland's chances of survival plummet.
Finally, let's look at the overall chart giving each team's probability of each finishing position:
Similarly, the threat of facing England has increased the chances of a second round exit for France, Portugal and Germany.
Conclusion
Just one match has had huge consequences for the battle to get through the group stage, and the uneven groups means that there is a noticeable knock-on effect for the chances of the bigger teams winning the tournament overall.
We will repeat this analysis after the second group matches.