Two years ago the Labour Party announced its list of target seats for the 2015 General Election.
Using our General Election model we are going to look at the 106 seats on this list, and see whether Labour have targeted the right places.
Using the drop-down list on the widget below will allow you to cycle through the seats on Labour's list. Selecting a constituency will allow you view various statistics about it. The Labour ranking is the position on Labour's hit-list the constituency occupies. The chance of Labour winning, the seat favourite and the lead are calculated using the model's March update. The TGIAF ranking is ordered by the probability of Labour winning.
Firstly, the seats where they have a better chance of winning than they initially estimated are unsurprisingly currently occupied by the Lib Dems. The three in particular which stand out are those in the top-right of the graph, which are Redcar, Hornsey & Wood Green and Cardiff Central.
Given that the SNP are expected to steal a plethora of seats from Labour in May, it isn't a shock that the single SNP seat Labour are targeting, Dundee East, is one of three seats where Labour's chance of winning is below 10%, alongside two other Scottish constituencies: Argyll & Bute and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale.
The other party which seems pretty resistant to Labour's targeting is the Green Party, whose sole seat occupies 19th place on the list. Despite this high position, Labour only have a 28.6% chance of taking the seat. As with the SNP, Labour might be more concerned about losing seats in the other direction, as five Labour seats are on the Greens' list of 12 "Campaigns to Watch".
The Seats Not on the List
Are there any seats not on this list of 106 where Labour do stand a reasonable chance of stealing a seat? Setting a minimum win likelihood of 20%, which would be enough to put a new constituency inside the top 100 on the TGIAF Ranking list, we find that there are five candidates for inclusion:
Two years is a long time, and it is likely that the Labour priorities have shifted from those identified in 2013. What we can see from analysing their hit-list is how Labour are doing on the various fronts they are fighting. Specifically, we can see that they are gaining from the Liberal Democrats, but failing to overcome the SNP and the Greens.