by Adrian Worton
Earlier this month we provided an Oscars simulator, which allowed us to make odds-based predictions for every category.
As this was a few weeks ago, and the odds have changed during the awards season, we are going to give a brief update on how the probabilities have changed for some of the main awards.
Earlier this month we provided an Oscars simulator, which allowed us to make odds-based predictions for every category.
As this was a few weeks ago, and the odds have changed during the awards season, we are going to give a brief update on how the probabilities have changed for some of the main awards.
Best picture
Birdman - 57.2% (change of +23.0%)
Boyhood - 33.7% (-22.2%)
American Sniper - 3.0% (+0.8%)
The Grand Budapest Hotel - 1.7% (-1.3%)
The Imitation Game - 1.5% (-0.6%)
Whiplash - 1.0% (+0.2%)
The Theory of Everything - 1.0% (+0.2%)
Selma - 0.9% (no change)
Best director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman) - 56.1% (+40.8%)
Richard Linklater (Boyhood) - 40.5% (-38.0%)
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel) - 1.5% (-0.9%)
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) - 1.0% (-0.9%)
Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) - 0.9% (-1.0%)
Best actor
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) - 70.3% (+5.3%)
Michael Keaton (Birdman) - 21.9% (-6.8%)
Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) - 5.1% (+2.0%)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) - 2.0% (-0.3%)
Steve Carrell (Foxcatcher) - 0.8% (-0.2%)
Best actress
Julianne Moore (Still Alice) - 90.4% (+2.9%)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild) - 3.8% (-1.5%)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) - 3.0% (-0.4%)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything) - 1.6% (-0.6%)
Marion Cotillard (Two Days One Night) - 1.2% (-0.4%)
Best supporting actor
JK Simmons (Whiplash) - 89.8% (+4.7%)
Edward Norton (Birdman) - 4.8% (-1.6%)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) - 3.2% (-1.3%)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) - 1.2% (-1.0%)
Robert Duvall (The Judge) - 1.0% (-0.7%)
Best supporting actress
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) - 92.0% (+4.1%)
Emma Stone (Birdman) - 3.6% (-1.1%)
Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) - 1.6% (-1.0%)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) - 1.4% (-1.0%)
Laura Dern (Wild) - 1.4% (-1.0%)
Best original screenplay
The Grand Budapest Hotel - 56.5% (+32.0%)
Birdman - 34.5% (-17.3%)
Boyhood - 6.3% (-13.1%)
Nightcrawler - 1.5% (-1.1%)
Foxcatcher - 1.2% (-0.5%)
Best adapted screenplay
The Imitation Game - 58.8% (+3.0%)
Whiplash - 24.3% (-3.2%)
The Theory of Everything - 13.1% (+3.2%)
American Sniper - 2.6% (-1.7%)
Inherent Vice - 1.3% (-1.2%)
In all the categories with a clear favourite (60% or higher chance of winning), we have just seen said favourite become even more likely, with all other contenders dropping away (with the exception of Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, who saw a small gain).
However, the interesting developments arise in the closer categories. Three categories now see a new leader - dramatically Inarritu and Birdman have overtaken Linklater and Boyhood for the two biggest gongs. However, Birdman has lost its favourite place for original screenplay to the Grand Budapest Hotel. The only major category with a marginal favourite who has remained there is the Imitation Game for adapted screenplay.
Clearly, there has been a shift away from Boyhood for whatever reason, with Birdman being the main beneficiary. However, American Sniper has also seen a substantial gain in most categories, as momentum has built, possibly due to its high box office takings.
With the Oscars now only six hours away, it will soon be time to see how our probabilities pan out!
Birdman - 57.2% (change of +23.0%)
Boyhood - 33.7% (-22.2%)
American Sniper - 3.0% (+0.8%)
The Grand Budapest Hotel - 1.7% (-1.3%)
The Imitation Game - 1.5% (-0.6%)
Whiplash - 1.0% (+0.2%)
The Theory of Everything - 1.0% (+0.2%)
Selma - 0.9% (no change)
Best director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman) - 56.1% (+40.8%)
Richard Linklater (Boyhood) - 40.5% (-38.0%)
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel) - 1.5% (-0.9%)
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) - 1.0% (-0.9%)
Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) - 0.9% (-1.0%)
Best actor
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) - 70.3% (+5.3%)
Michael Keaton (Birdman) - 21.9% (-6.8%)
Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) - 5.1% (+2.0%)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) - 2.0% (-0.3%)
Steve Carrell (Foxcatcher) - 0.8% (-0.2%)
Best actress
Julianne Moore (Still Alice) - 90.4% (+2.9%)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild) - 3.8% (-1.5%)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) - 3.0% (-0.4%)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything) - 1.6% (-0.6%)
Marion Cotillard (Two Days One Night) - 1.2% (-0.4%)
Best supporting actor
JK Simmons (Whiplash) - 89.8% (+4.7%)
Edward Norton (Birdman) - 4.8% (-1.6%)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) - 3.2% (-1.3%)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) - 1.2% (-1.0%)
Robert Duvall (The Judge) - 1.0% (-0.7%)
Best supporting actress
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) - 92.0% (+4.1%)
Emma Stone (Birdman) - 3.6% (-1.1%)
Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) - 1.6% (-1.0%)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) - 1.4% (-1.0%)
Laura Dern (Wild) - 1.4% (-1.0%)
Best original screenplay
The Grand Budapest Hotel - 56.5% (+32.0%)
Birdman - 34.5% (-17.3%)
Boyhood - 6.3% (-13.1%)
Nightcrawler - 1.5% (-1.1%)
Foxcatcher - 1.2% (-0.5%)
Best adapted screenplay
The Imitation Game - 58.8% (+3.0%)
Whiplash - 24.3% (-3.2%)
The Theory of Everything - 13.1% (+3.2%)
American Sniper - 2.6% (-1.7%)
Inherent Vice - 1.3% (-1.2%)
In all the categories with a clear favourite (60% or higher chance of winning), we have just seen said favourite become even more likely, with all other contenders dropping away (with the exception of Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, who saw a small gain).
However, the interesting developments arise in the closer categories. Three categories now see a new leader - dramatically Inarritu and Birdman have overtaken Linklater and Boyhood for the two biggest gongs. However, Birdman has lost its favourite place for original screenplay to the Grand Budapest Hotel. The only major category with a marginal favourite who has remained there is the Imitation Game for adapted screenplay.
Clearly, there has been a shift away from Boyhood for whatever reason, with Birdman being the main beneficiary. However, American Sniper has also seen a substantial gain in most categories, as momentum has built, possibly due to its high box office takings.
With the Oscars now only six hours away, it will soon be time to see how our probabilities pan out!