by Dr Adrian Worton
No, the headline isn't about the Euros. It's the penultimate article in our series looking at narratives at the General Election. Today we look at Scotland.
As those of you who know me in real life - or those who have read the article on tactical voting - will know, I live in Scotland. When writing the various articles on the General Election I naturally have had an eye on the Scottish seats in particular, and I have noticed something.
No, the headline isn't about the Euros. It's the penultimate article in our series looking at narratives at the General Election. Today we look at Scotland.
As those of you who know me in real life - or those who have read the article on tactical voting - will know, I live in Scotland. When writing the various articles on the General Election I naturally have had an eye on the Scottish seats in particular, and I have noticed something.
Below are the MRP maps from Ipsos (left), Savanta (centre) and YouGov (right), with the Scottish seats highlighted in blue:
In stark contrast to elsewhere - especially northern England and London, the pollsters' predictions for Scottish seats are less certain. This is most obvious in the Savanta map, with approximately half of Scotland's 57 seats listed as "Too close to call" (grey).
The other two maps have fewer pure toss-ups, but the colours of Scottish seats are still clearly lighter than in most English and Welsh seats, indicating less certainty. Even the seats with higher confidence don't seem cut-and-dried; for example, Na h-Eileanan an Iar (the Outer Hebrides) is rated as "likely SNP" by Ipsos (48% to 28%) but "lean Labour" by YouGov (42% to 32%) [footnote 1].
Today we will look to see how undecided the Scottish seats are, and therefore what are the range of outcomes we can expect?
Certainty
Let's have a look at how Scotland compares to Northern Ireland, Wales and the separate regions of England (using the ITL 1 statistical regions), using our odds-based model. We are simply going to take the probability of the favourite in each seat winning and average this across each region.
The other two maps have fewer pure toss-ups, but the colours of Scottish seats are still clearly lighter than in most English and Welsh seats, indicating less certainty. Even the seats with higher confidence don't seem cut-and-dried; for example, Na h-Eileanan an Iar (the Outer Hebrides) is rated as "likely SNP" by Ipsos (48% to 28%) but "lean Labour" by YouGov (42% to 32%) [footnote 1].
Today we will look to see how undecided the Scottish seats are, and therefore what are the range of outcomes we can expect?
Certainty
Let's have a look at how Scotland compares to Northern Ireland, Wales and the separate regions of England (using the ITL 1 statistical regions), using our odds-based model. We are simply going to take the probability of the favourite in each seat winning and average this across each region.
Note: the data from this article was collected on the 19th of June.
In Scotland, the average probability for the favourite in a seat is 77.0%. This is well below the highest regions of North East England (94.4%), Wales (93.8%) and North West England (93.5). In fact, only East of England has a lower value, and even that at 76.8% is only slightly below Scotland's value.
Below is the same value (average favourite likelihood) for the last three elections split by region:
In Scotland, the average probability for the favourite in a seat is 77.0%. This is well below the highest regions of North East England (94.4%), Wales (93.8%) and North West England (93.5). In fact, only East of England has a lower value, and even that at 76.8% is only slightly below Scotland's value.
Below is the same value (average favourite likelihood) for the last three elections split by region:
Our older models used smaller regions (51 in total), so there are a lot of lines. The two Scottish regions are highlighted: East Scotland (blue) and West Scotland (red). East Scotland is always towards the bottom of the chart above, whilst West Scotland briefly has a rise in 2017 but generally is in the same ballpark.
So uncertainty over the outcome of Scottish seats is not new to this election.
Party expectations
The main thing we now know is that the outcomes of the Scottish seats in this year's election are unclear.
As with our previous articles we will use our beeswarm charts (as introduced in our Labour article) to see the probability distributions for each party. Below are the beeswarms for the Conservatives, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP for the Scottish constituencies only:
So uncertainty over the outcome of Scottish seats is not new to this election.
Party expectations
The main thing we now know is that the outcomes of the Scottish seats in this year's election are unclear.
As with our previous articles we will use our beeswarm charts (as introduced in our Labour article) to see the probability distributions for each party. Below are the beeswarms for the Conservatives, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP for the Scottish constituencies only:
Looking at the Labour and SNP beeswarms, we can finally see why these charts have that name!
We can also see why Scotland rates second-lowest for the certainty of its seats. Unlike nearly all the previous beeswarms we've seen, there are zero points on the 100% line above. The closest is Labour's best seat, Edinburgh South [footnote 2].
Now we repeat the same analysis from our previous episodes to see how many seats each party would end up with for various success levels (as defined in the Labour article):
We can also see why Scotland rates second-lowest for the certainty of its seats. Unlike nearly all the previous beeswarms we've seen, there are zero points on the 100% line above. The closest is Labour's best seat, Edinburgh South [footnote 2].
Now we repeat the same analysis from our previous episodes to see how many seats each party would end up with for various success levels (as defined in the Labour article):
It's surprising that the SNP's best-case scenario (47 seats) is better than Labour's (43), because generally things look better for Labour. Obviously, these lines are not independent; for example, if the SNP over-perform the polls (and have a low success level) then Labour will almost certainly under-perform (and have a high success level).
Let's look at each party's prospects individually. Their number of current Scottish MPs is listed in brackets:
Conservatives (7)
As we mentioned in our article on the Conservatives, Scotland is actually less bad for them than the rest of the country, and we also found that Scottish constituency Gordon & Buchan is the only one in the country that is likely to see a Conservative gain.
As such, there is actually an outside chance that they increase their number of Scottish MPs, and a reasonable chance they avoid a decrease. But any under-performance and we could easily see a similar drop in Conservative seats as we are set to see across England and Wales. A success level over 80% would see Scotland have the same number of Conservative MPs as it does pandas.
Labour (2)
With a fairly flat distribution in the centre of the graph above, we can actually be fairly confident in forecasting Labour to end up with 28-32 seats. This makes sense from the beeswarm chart, as Labour have a cluster of 28 safe-ish seats on the right of the chart, and four more marginal seats in the middle.
There's a further cluster of 4 that Labour could potentially win, and another handful if they have an exceptional performance at the polls. There is a potentially sharp drop-off were Labour to perform badly, but really the party's target should be around half of Scotland's seats.
Liberal Democrats (4)
This is the easiest one to analyse. The Lib Dems have a remarkably flat distribution on the graph above, with virtually every scenario seeing them wind up with 5 MPs, a slight increase on current numbers.
Those five seats are the four they currently hold, plus Mid Dunbartonshire. This is a successor constituency to East Dunbartonshire, the seat that then-Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson famously lost her own seat a few weeks after declaring she could become Prime Minister with a majority.
SNP (43)
The SNP would need a huge over-performance on the polls to avoid losing seats. The central bulk of the SNP's line above has them on between 9-23 seats. This is a very wide range, and the steepness of the SNP's line means their seat count is very sensitive to their performance this year.
The SNP are in a similar position to the Conservatives in that their polling decline leaves no seat fully safe. Their safest is Aberdeen North, whilst at the other end of the scale Lothian East was won by the SNP in 2019 but now only has a 2.8% chance of being won this time [footnote 3].
Summary
Scotland is mainly a battleground between Labour and the SNP, with the Conservatives and Lib Dems targeting specific seats. Labour are in the best position and look set to return to their pre-2015 status as Scotland's largest party in Westminster.
Since the 2014 Independence Referendum, the SNP has strongly benefitted from the nature of First Past the Post. The SNP are the only pro-independence party to be elected in Scotland in this era, and with roughly half the population in favour, it leaves the SNP the natural choice for around 40-50% of votes in most seats. It makes every seat a battle between the SNP and their nearest unionist challenger, and with the unionist vote split three ways it plays strongly into SNP hands.
Now with the Conservative vote in shreds, and Reform UK not a force in Scotland, Labour are able to take a much larger share of unionist votes than before. Coupled with the SNP's own troubles the conditions are ripe for major change in Scotland. However, the large number of marginal seats means that there is a wide range of plausible outcomes on the table.
Of course, independence isn't the only (or main, even) factor for Scottish voters. The most common things I personally have heard from the parties here are things such as the NHS, education and crime. All of which are devolved matters.
Let's look at each party's prospects individually. Their number of current Scottish MPs is listed in brackets:
Conservatives (7)
As we mentioned in our article on the Conservatives, Scotland is actually less bad for them than the rest of the country, and we also found that Scottish constituency Gordon & Buchan is the only one in the country that is likely to see a Conservative gain.
As such, there is actually an outside chance that they increase their number of Scottish MPs, and a reasonable chance they avoid a decrease. But any under-performance and we could easily see a similar drop in Conservative seats as we are set to see across England and Wales. A success level over 80% would see Scotland have the same number of Conservative MPs as it does pandas.
Labour (2)
With a fairly flat distribution in the centre of the graph above, we can actually be fairly confident in forecasting Labour to end up with 28-32 seats. This makes sense from the beeswarm chart, as Labour have a cluster of 28 safe-ish seats on the right of the chart, and four more marginal seats in the middle.
There's a further cluster of 4 that Labour could potentially win, and another handful if they have an exceptional performance at the polls. There is a potentially sharp drop-off were Labour to perform badly, but really the party's target should be around half of Scotland's seats.
Liberal Democrats (4)
This is the easiest one to analyse. The Lib Dems have a remarkably flat distribution on the graph above, with virtually every scenario seeing them wind up with 5 MPs, a slight increase on current numbers.
Those five seats are the four they currently hold, plus Mid Dunbartonshire. This is a successor constituency to East Dunbartonshire, the seat that then-Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson famously lost her own seat a few weeks after declaring she could become Prime Minister with a majority.
SNP (43)
The SNP would need a huge over-performance on the polls to avoid losing seats. The central bulk of the SNP's line above has them on between 9-23 seats. This is a very wide range, and the steepness of the SNP's line means their seat count is very sensitive to their performance this year.
The SNP are in a similar position to the Conservatives in that their polling decline leaves no seat fully safe. Their safest is Aberdeen North, whilst at the other end of the scale Lothian East was won by the SNP in 2019 but now only has a 2.8% chance of being won this time [footnote 3].
Summary
Scotland is mainly a battleground between Labour and the SNP, with the Conservatives and Lib Dems targeting specific seats. Labour are in the best position and look set to return to their pre-2015 status as Scotland's largest party in Westminster.
Since the 2014 Independence Referendum, the SNP has strongly benefitted from the nature of First Past the Post. The SNP are the only pro-independence party to be elected in Scotland in this era, and with roughly half the population in favour, it leaves the SNP the natural choice for around 40-50% of votes in most seats. It makes every seat a battle between the SNP and their nearest unionist challenger, and with the unionist vote split three ways it plays strongly into SNP hands.
Now with the Conservative vote in shreds, and Reform UK not a force in Scotland, Labour are able to take a much larger share of unionist votes than before. Coupled with the SNP's own troubles the conditions are ripe for major change in Scotland. However, the large number of marginal seats means that there is a wide range of plausible outcomes on the table.
Of course, independence isn't the only (or main, even) factor for Scottish voters. The most common things I personally have heard from the parties here are things such as the NHS, education and crime. All of which are devolved matters.
Footnotes:
[1]
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In fairness to the polling companies, Na h-Eileanan an Iar is the UK's smallest constituency and therefore in turn probably has a very small sample for any nationwide poll.
For example, Ipsos say they polled 20,000 people for their MRP. That is a lot, but if respondents were polled proportionally then that would only mean 9 people from the Outer Hebrides were asked. |
[2]
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Edinburgh South was the only Scottish seat Labour took in both 2015 and 2019. Given the relevant context of this election compared to those two, it is fair to say this is a nailed-on certainty.
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[3]
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Lothian East, or East Lothian as it was known up to this election, was won from Labour by Kenny MacAskill. He has since defected to Alba. Labour's candidate in the upcoming election is former Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander.
A quick word on Alba - despite having two MPs (Neale Hanvey in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath being the other) they remain absent from our model. This is because the bookmakers haven't given them odds for any seat. Given a recent local news story quoted Hanvey as being optimistic of retaining his deposit, this is possibly fair. |