by Dr Adrian Worton
We're in the home straight now. In a week's time the nation will be heading to the polls. It has not been an election of twists and turns; the main source of uncertainty for me is the weather as I want to recreate the Australian democracy sausage tradition by having a barbeque.
At this stage a big Labour majority looks pretty certain, with predictions generally placing their seat count in the 400s, a majority of at least 150. Meanwhile, the vagaries of first past the post could cement a historic low for the Conservatives.
Today we will provide our latest seat projection update, and have a little look at the smaller parties. If you want the latest for an individual constituency, scroll down to the green box below.
We're in the home straight now. In a week's time the nation will be heading to the polls. It has not been an election of twists and turns; the main source of uncertainty for me is the weather as I want to recreate the Australian democracy sausage tradition by having a barbeque.
At this stage a big Labour majority looks pretty certain, with predictions generally placing their seat count in the 400s, a majority of at least 150. Meanwhile, the vagaries of first past the post could cement a historic low for the Conservatives.
Today we will provide our latest seat projection update, and have a little look at the smaller parties. If you want the latest for an individual constituency, scroll down to the green box below.
Seat projections
The data was collected early this morning (27th June). Below are our latest projections for the seat count using the two methods outlined here:
The data was collected early this morning (27th June). Below are our latest projections for the seat count using the two methods outlined here:
There is one seat listed as dead level: South East Cornwall. It's seen as a dead heat between the Conservatives and Labour, so is missing from the table above.
Anyway, what has changed from a week ago?
At the point the election was called a two-figure Conservative seat total would have been out of the question. But it's a sign of what an utter catastrophe it has been that our figure of 98 is not an outlier in the slightest. The most recent other seat projection I can find is Electoral Calculus' which has the Conservatives on 60.
To see our probabilities for individual constituencies, you can use the tool below:
Anyway, what has changed from a week ago?
- Despite an increase of less than 1 expected seat, Labour are now favourites in 445 seats, an increase of 8 from last week's article. This would be a majority of 240.
- The Lib Dems have an expected seat gain of over 3, and are now favourites in a further 4 seats. This sees them favourites in 64 seats, which would be a party record for a General Election.
- There is no change in the expected seats for the SNP and Reform UK, but they have slightly increased their expected seats count.
- All this means further hurt for the Conservatives. For the first time, they are now favourites in under 100 seats, 12 fewer than last week. Whilst their expected seat count is higher, it is still down 6 from before.
At the point the election was called a two-figure Conservative seat total would have been out of the question. But it's a sign of what an utter catastrophe it has been that our figure of 98 is not an outlier in the slightest. The most recent other seat projection I can find is Electoral Calculus' which has the Conservatives on 60.
To see our probabilities for individual constituencies, you can use the tool below:
TGIAF constituency profiles
Select your constituency from the drop-down list below to view a quick factfile and our latest probabilities for its winner.
If you aren't sure of the name of the constituency you want, you can use the UK Parliament tool here to search by postcode.
Select your constituency from the drop-down list below to view a quick factfile and our latest probabilities for its winner.
If you aren't sure of the name of the constituency you want, you can use the UK Parliament tool here to search by postcode.
Smaller parties
We have done a series of articles looking at individual narratives, with ones looking at Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems & Reform and Scotland.
Today we're going to go through the smaller parties. Unfortunately, we are not going to cover Northern Ireland as nearly every pollster has ignored the parties there and I am sceptical how much insight there is to glean. If you do want to, you can look up the constituencies individually on our tool above (there are only 18).
We'll go through the parties in the order of their expected seats in our table above. The number of seats they are defending is listed in brackets.
Plaid Cymru (2)
At the last election Plaid Cymru won four seats: Arfon, Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, Ceredigion and Dwyfor Meirionnydd. Since then the party has suspended the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, Jonathan Edwards.
Unfortunately for Plaid, the seat of Arfon - the mainland constituency with the smallest electorate - is being abolished at this election, with its area split between Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Bangor Aberconwy. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and Ceredigion are now known as Caerfyrddin and Ceredigion Preseli respectively.
This means there are three seats Plaid won in 2019 that they are contesting this year, and they are favourites to win all three. They also have a fighting chance of winning Ynys Môn for the first time since 1997.
4 is Plaid's best General Election seat tally and they seem unlikely to better that, with no other seats having a chance greater than 3%.
Green Party
Unfortunately for Plaid, the seat of Arfon - the mainland constituency with the smallest electorate - is being abolished at this election, with its area split between Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Bangor Aberconwy. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and Ceredigion are now known as Caerfyrddin and Ceredigion Preseli respectively.
This means there are three seats Plaid won in 2019 that they are contesting this year, and they are favourites to win all three. They also have a fighting chance of winning Ynys Môn for the first time since 1997.
4 is Plaid's best General Election seat tally and they seem unlikely to better that, with no other seats having a chance greater than 3%.
Green Party
Caroline Lucas made history when she took Brighton Pavilion for the Greens in 2010, and despite her standing down at this election - and Labour pouring a lot of resources into the seat - Siân Berry is expected to retain it.
Since 2010, the Greens have themselves targeted another Labour-held seat, Bristol Central (known as Bristol West before this election), and their efforts look to have finally paid off as they are favourites to win there. This would be notable as it is the only Labour-held seat that is expected to flip.
The Conservative collapse has defined this election, and the Greens could profit as they are now seriously challenging in two seats that otherwise would be easy Conservative victories: Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire. The former is a new constituency, but the latter has elected Conservative (or associated candidates) since 1910.
Like Plaid, the Greens' don't look likely to take more than 4 seats, with their next-best chance an outside shot at Sheffield Central. Labour won this seat in 2019 with two thirds of the vote.
Workers Party (1)
Since 2010, the Greens have themselves targeted another Labour-held seat, Bristol Central (known as Bristol West before this election), and their efforts look to have finally paid off as they are favourites to win there. This would be notable as it is the only Labour-held seat that is expected to flip.
The Conservative collapse has defined this election, and the Greens could profit as they are now seriously challenging in two seats that otherwise would be easy Conservative victories: Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire. The former is a new constituency, but the latter has elected Conservative (or associated candidates) since 1910.
Like Plaid, the Greens' don't look likely to take more than 4 seats, with their next-best chance an outside shot at Sheffield Central. Labour won this seat in 2019 with two thirds of the vote.
Workers Party (1)
As they are usually referred to, George Galloway's Workers Party (which makes it sound like it's a party for his personal staff) turned heads with a big by-election victory in Rochdale.
Crucially, however, Labour had dropped their candidate in that election. With no such own-goal this time Labour are expected to beat Galloway, although it is not a certainty. Elsewhere, the Workers Party have a few seats where they are second-favourites, but a huge distance behind Labour.
Alba (2)
Despite both current MPs - both SNP defectors - standing in this election, Alba's prospects are so remote they remain absent from the bookmakers' odds. Given that they have failed to win any seats in either the Scottish Parliament or in local elections, this is not a great surprise.
Independents (16)
Crucially, however, Labour had dropped their candidate in that election. With no such own-goal this time Labour are expected to beat Galloway, although it is not a certainty. Elsewhere, the Workers Party have a few seats where they are second-favourites, but a huge distance behind Labour.
Alba (2)
Despite both current MPs - both SNP defectors - standing in this election, Alba's prospects are so remote they remain absent from the bookmakers' odds. Given that they have failed to win any seats in either the Scottish Parliament or in local elections, this is not a great surprise.
Independents (16)
The large number of independents is because of the inordinate number of MPs suspended for various reasons during the last parliamentary term.
Our group of Independents includes the Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, who traditionally stands unopposed. Whilst the Greens and other independents are running in his seat Chorley, we have given him a 100% chance of winning - the only one in our model.
North Down sees Alex Easton, an Independent Unionist, given a very good chance of defeating the incumbent Alliance.
Islington North is one of the most high-profile constituencies this election, as previous Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn runs as an independent. He had been rated as favourite in this seat for the duration of the race, but recent constituency polling has Labour ahead. Confusingly, other polling suggests that voters there would prefer Corbyn to Labour in a one-on-one vote, which suggests they are voting Labour as a tactical vote against the Conservatives. We rate the Conservatives' chance in Islington North as so low it doesn't appear on the chart above, so there is absolutely no need for tactical voting in this constituency.
Akhmed Yakoob is expected to give Labour a fight in Birmingham Ladywood. Whilst he is running as an independent he has been endorsed by the Workers Party.
The independent candidate in North West Leicestershire is Andrew Bridgen, who lost the Conservative whip after jumping off the deep end into the pool of conspiracy theories.
Chingford and Woodford Green is the seat of Iain Duncan Smith, and in 2019 Labour's Faiza Shaheen ran him very close despite the national swing towards the Conservatives. However, she has been controversially axed as a candidate, creating a three-way battle.
Ashfield is arguably a four-way battle. Lee Anderson won the seat for the Conservatives last time, but has since defected to Reform (albeit only after being suspended from the Conservatives). As with everywhere, Labour have hopes of winning, whilst this seat has long-standing party Ashfield Independents in contention. Their candidate is leader of the local council Jason Zadrozny, who himself has been a source of controversy. Our model has this as a very close race between Labour and Reform.
Summary
As Labour and the Lib Dems tear through the Conservatives' seats, not much space is being left for other parties. There are potential gains out there though, even though they are unlikely to make any short-term difference to Labour's imminent majority.
The next week will see us prepare for our election night coverage, so stay tuned for that! We will also be publishing our final seat projections the day before the vote.
Our group of Independents includes the Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, who traditionally stands unopposed. Whilst the Greens and other independents are running in his seat Chorley, we have given him a 100% chance of winning - the only one in our model.
North Down sees Alex Easton, an Independent Unionist, given a very good chance of defeating the incumbent Alliance.
Islington North is one of the most high-profile constituencies this election, as previous Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn runs as an independent. He had been rated as favourite in this seat for the duration of the race, but recent constituency polling has Labour ahead. Confusingly, other polling suggests that voters there would prefer Corbyn to Labour in a one-on-one vote, which suggests they are voting Labour as a tactical vote against the Conservatives. We rate the Conservatives' chance in Islington North as so low it doesn't appear on the chart above, so there is absolutely no need for tactical voting in this constituency.
Akhmed Yakoob is expected to give Labour a fight in Birmingham Ladywood. Whilst he is running as an independent he has been endorsed by the Workers Party.
The independent candidate in North West Leicestershire is Andrew Bridgen, who lost the Conservative whip after jumping off the deep end into the pool of conspiracy theories.
Chingford and Woodford Green is the seat of Iain Duncan Smith, and in 2019 Labour's Faiza Shaheen ran him very close despite the national swing towards the Conservatives. However, she has been controversially axed as a candidate, creating a three-way battle.
Ashfield is arguably a four-way battle. Lee Anderson won the seat for the Conservatives last time, but has since defected to Reform (albeit only after being suspended from the Conservatives). As with everywhere, Labour have hopes of winning, whilst this seat has long-standing party Ashfield Independents in contention. Their candidate is leader of the local council Jason Zadrozny, who himself has been a source of controversy. Our model has this as a very close race between Labour and Reform.
Summary
As Labour and the Lib Dems tear through the Conservatives' seats, not much space is being left for other parties. There are potential gains out there though, even though they are unlikely to make any short-term difference to Labour's imminent majority.
The next week will see us prepare for our election night coverage, so stay tuned for that! We will also be publishing our final seat projections the day before the vote.