by Dr Adrian Worton
Just over a week ago we launched our General Election 2024 coverage. We created seat projections based on bookmaker odds to see how things are shaping up early on.
It wasn't the best timing, because not only have the election debates begun but the campaign has seen Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's now-infamous D-Day gaffe. New polls make things seem even tougher for his Conservative party. So, how has it all changed the landscape?
In this article we will provide a quick update on our seat projections, have a look at the closest individual seats and - best of all - unveil our constituency profile tool, allowing you to look up individual seats. If that is all you're here for, skip to the green box at the end.
Just over a week ago we launched our General Election 2024 coverage. We created seat projections based on bookmaker odds to see how things are shaping up early on.
It wasn't the best timing, because not only have the election debates begun but the campaign has seen Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's now-infamous D-Day gaffe. New polls make things seem even tougher for his Conservative party. So, how has it all changed the landscape?
In this article we will provide a quick update on our seat projections, have a look at the closest individual seats and - best of all - unveil our constituency profile tool, allowing you to look up individual seats. If that is all you're here for, skip to the green box at the end.
Latest seat projections
As with last time, we have used two methods for giving seat estimates:
Anyway, this is how those two counts shape up now:
As with last time, we have used two methods for giving seat estimates:
- Favourites - whoever is the favourite in a given seat is awarded it
- Expected seats - a sum of each party's win probability across every seat
Anyway, this is how those two counts shape up now:
The data was collected on the evening of the 14th of June, and there is now just one missing seat - my old home of Stirling & Strathallan. YouGov has that seat as "Tossup SNP" ahead of Labour. So if you want a complete picture you can add 1 to the SNP's favourite column, roughly 0.6 to their expected seats count and 0.4 to Labour's.
Anyway, the headlines from the latest data:
Closest seats
As we are unveiling our viewer for individual constituencies, let's have a look at which seats are currently the closest.
Two-way marginals
Below are the 15 seats with the least difference between the favourite and the second-favourite:
Anyway, the headlines from the latest data:
- There hasn't been much of a shift in the seat projections compared to the 4th June data, as no count has changed by more than a few seats.
- Labour have improved compared to our 4th June article. They are looking at a majority of 194 or 224 depending on the method used, an increase from 184 and 214 last time.
- Conversely, the Conservatives are looking at 113 or 128 seats. This means both methods are now predicting their lowest ever seat count, below 1906's 131 total. Their lowest post-war seat count is 165 (in 1997).
- Despite polls having them as the third-biggest party, the bookmakers are cold on Reform UK, who are still only favourites in one seat. They are challengers in several others though, and their expected seat count has risen a little to 5.3.
Closest seats
As we are unveiling our viewer for individual constituencies, let's have a look at which seats are currently the closest.
Two-way marginals
Below are the 15 seats with the least difference between the favourite and the second-favourite:
Note that - due to timesaving purposes - these are not ordered by closeness, but just by alphabetical order. Although coincidentally, the closest seat is the top one, The Wrekin. Here, Labour are on 49.5% and the Conservatives are on 49.2%.
As you would expect, most (eight) of these marginals are Conservative-Labour. Three are Conservative-Lib Dem. Then there is one Conservative-SNP, one Labour-SNP, one Alliance-DUP and one Alliance-Independent.
The last of is North Down (the most oxymoronic constituency name). This is interesting as this seat was the only one that elected an independent MP when we first started doing our General Election models - Sylvia Hermon.
Three-way marginals
Below are the ten seats with the lowest gap between the favourite and third-favourite:
As you would expect, most (eight) of these marginals are Conservative-Labour. Three are Conservative-Lib Dem. Then there is one Conservative-SNP, one Labour-SNP, one Alliance-DUP and one Alliance-Independent.
The last of is North Down (the most oxymoronic constituency name). This is interesting as this seat was the only one that elected an independent MP when we first started doing our General Election models - Sylvia Hermon.
Three-way marginals
Below are the ten seats with the lowest gap between the favourite and third-favourite:
Three of the seats on the two-way list are here too: Bicester & Woodstock, Harpenden & Berkhamsted and Newton Abbot.
Unlike the variety in the previous list, 9 of our 10 three-way marginals are Conservative-Labour-Lib Dem. The exception is Dumfries & Galloway which is Conservative-Labour-SNP.
The closest three-way marginal is Chichester, which has the Lib Dems on 42.2%, Labour on 29.2% and the Conservatives on 28.4%.
Summary
We remain on course for an election that will bring a record high for Labour and a record low for the Conservatives. Although our model has not changed much despite plenty of chaos in the polls. This may be because the bookmakers are being conservative (pun not intended) as to how radical this election's results will be - time will tell.
Unlike the variety in the previous list, 9 of our 10 three-way marginals are Conservative-Labour-Lib Dem. The exception is Dumfries & Galloway which is Conservative-Labour-SNP.
The closest three-way marginal is Chichester, which has the Lib Dems on 42.2%, Labour on 29.2% and the Conservatives on 28.4%.
Summary
We remain on course for an election that will bring a record high for Labour and a record low for the Conservatives. Although our model has not changed much despite plenty of chaos in the polls. This may be because the bookmakers are being conservative (pun not intended) as to how radical this election's results will be - time will tell.
Constituency Profiles
Here is the TGIAF tool to view individual constituencies! Just select a seat from the drop-down menu and you should be able to see a few facts about it, and our probabilities for who will win come July.
If you aren't sure of the name of the constituency you want, you can use the UK Parliament tool here to search by postcode.
Here is the TGIAF tool to view individual constituencies! Just select a seat from the drop-down menu and you should be able to see a few facts about it, and our probabilities for who will win come July.
If you aren't sure of the name of the constituency you want, you can use the UK Parliament tool here to search by postcode.
It's not the most beautiful at the moment, as I am teaching myself how to use the Shiny package in R. Hopefully during the election this will continue to look better.
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