by Dr Adrian Worton
We continue looking at individual party narratives using our General Election 2024 model. After a look at Labour, it's the reluctant turn of the Conservatives.
With our model consistent with everybody else's in predicting a bloodbath for the Conservatives (our most recent projections had the party losing over 200 of its 330 seats), we are going to be looking at which big names from the party are most at risk.
We continue looking at individual party narratives using our General Election 2024 model. After a look at Labour, it's the reluctant turn of the Conservatives.
With our model consistent with everybody else's in predicting a bloodbath for the Conservatives (our most recent projections had the party losing over 200 of its 330 seats), we are going to be looking at which big names from the party are most at risk.
Note: the data in this article was collected on the 14th of June.
The Cabinet
Let's start with the current cabinet. There are 23 members, two of whom are not MPs. There are a further 9 MPs who attend cabinet. Of all these MPs three are standing down, leaving 27 MPs in total.
Alarmingly for the Conservatives, under half (13) of those MPs are favourites to retain their seat:
The Cabinet
Let's start with the current cabinet. There are 23 members, two of whom are not MPs. There are a further 9 MPs who attend cabinet. Of all these MPs three are standing down, leaving 27 MPs in total.
Alarmingly for the Conservatives, under half (13) of those MPs are favourites to retain their seat:
This leaves 14 members of cabinet who are currently expected to lose their seat:
The holders of several high-status positions are in this list, although I would argue that several of them are not actually big names in their own right. For example, Lord Chancellor Alex Chalk merits a Partridgian shrug.
Undoubtedly, the biggest name - and therefore the election's main Portillo Moment candidate - is the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Another long-term cabinet member Grant Shapps is looking almost certain for the chop. One of the most interesting names on the list above though is Penny Mordaunt, who has been strongly tipped to be the next party leader. She faces a very difficult battle to even remain in the Commons.
Let us now have a look at a selection of high-profile Conservative MPs who are not members of the cabinet. Below are a selection of Conservative MPs notable for one reason or another:
Undoubtedly, the biggest name - and therefore the election's main Portillo Moment candidate - is the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Another long-term cabinet member Grant Shapps is looking almost certain for the chop. One of the most interesting names on the list above though is Penny Mordaunt, who has been strongly tipped to be the next party leader. She faces a very difficult battle to even remain in the Commons.
Let us now have a look at a selection of high-profile Conservative MPs who are not members of the cabinet. Below are a selection of Conservative MPs notable for one reason or another:
In my years covering General Elections, a general rule of thumb I've noticed is that if a constituency is the form "[cardinal point] [county]" (such as South West Norfolk), it is among the safest Conservative seats. I have to say I never expected to see the likes of North Somerset and North Northumberland turning to Labour.
Among the well-known names in big trouble are prominent Brexit supporters Steve Baker, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Iain Duncan Smith. Former Deputy Prime Minister Damian Green is an outsider for the seat he has held since 1997. Perhaps most stark is the case of Peter Bottomley, who has been an MP since 1975 and is the Father of the House (longest-serving male MP, he is also the longest-serving MP overall). He has just a 14.3% chance of retaining Worthing West.
Safe seats
Another thing that really stands out in the data is that even the Conservatives' safest seats aren't that safe. In the tables above the safest seat is Christchurch, at 93.5%. This is the party's 6th-safest seat. Top of the list is Weald of Kent, a new constituency where the Conservatives are rated as 97.3% likely to win.
For context, Labour have 155 seats where they are more than 97.3% likely to win (that number along is higher than anticipated total number of Conservative seats following the election). And these are the number of seats each party had at the previous elections that were rated as more safe than 97.3%:
Among the well-known names in big trouble are prominent Brexit supporters Steve Baker, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Iain Duncan Smith. Former Deputy Prime Minister Damian Green is an outsider for the seat he has held since 1997. Perhaps most stark is the case of Peter Bottomley, who has been an MP since 1975 and is the Father of the House (longest-serving male MP, he is also the longest-serving MP overall). He has just a 14.3% chance of retaining Worthing West.
Safe seats
Another thing that really stands out in the data is that even the Conservatives' safest seats aren't that safe. In the tables above the safest seat is Christchurch, at 93.5%. This is the party's 6th-safest seat. Top of the list is Weald of Kent, a new constituency where the Conservatives are rated as 97.3% likely to win.
For context, Labour have 155 seats where they are more than 97.3% likely to win (that number along is higher than anticipated total number of Conservative seats following the election). And these are the number of seats each party had at the previous elections that were rated as more safe than 97.3%:
Election |
Conservative >97.3% |
Labour > 97.3% |
2015 |
157 |
154 |
2017 |
249 |
57 |
2019 |
160 |
62 |
Cast your mind back to how much Labour were written off in the build up to the 2017 election. Even then, they had 57 seats that were reckoned to be safer than any Conservative seat right now.
This utter collapse in safe seats for the Conservatives comes amidst a general trend that has seen the number of safe seats rise each election since 2010.
In our article on Labour last time, we debuted our beeswarm charts, which just plotted every seat against its probability. For example, here is the one for the Conservatives at the last election:
This utter collapse in safe seats for the Conservatives comes amidst a general trend that has seen the number of safe seats rise each election since 2010.
In our article on Labour last time, we debuted our beeswarm charts, which just plotted every seat against its probability. For example, here is the one for the Conservatives at the last election:
Every chart we looked at had a very similar hourglass shape, with lots of seats that were virtually unwinnable (the thick group on the left) and a lot of seats that were virtually guaranteed (the thick group on the right).
Here is the beeswarm chart for the Conservatives at this election:
Here is the beeswarm chart for the Conservatives at this election:
This is utterly abject. It is like the hourglass from the previous chart has been turned to the left and the sand is just pouring down to the bottom. As an analogy for the Conservatives' time in office it could not be more on-the-nose.
Repeating the analysis we carried out on Labour to get an idea of the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Conservatives, we get:
Repeating the analysis we carried out on Labour to get an idea of the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Conservatives, we get:
A reminder that our new 'success level' metric is the probability a party needs to win a seat. So a success level of 50% means the party wins every seat it has a >50% chance of winning and loses the rest. Therefore, a low success level is better (I'm not entirely happy with this, I may end up flipping this measurement so high = good).
We said that a success level between 10-90% is plausible. Indeed, at the 2017 election the Conservatives severely underperformed with a success level of 85%. Were they to repeat that this time around they would end with 20 seats. The reverse situation - a success level of 15% - results in 222 seats which is still a loss of over 100 from their current position.
Make no mistake, a wipe-out is possible, if not the most likely outcome.
Which type of seats are most vulnerable?
Clearly, the answer seems to be virtually every seat. But let's break down Conservative-held seats by a couple of factors to see if there's any pattern.
Firstly, let's look at their probability of retaining seats compared to their winning margin in 2019:
We said that a success level between 10-90% is plausible. Indeed, at the 2017 election the Conservatives severely underperformed with a success level of 85%. Were they to repeat that this time around they would end with 20 seats. The reverse situation - a success level of 15% - results in 222 seats which is still a loss of over 100 from their current position.
Make no mistake, a wipe-out is possible, if not the most likely outcome.
Which type of seats are most vulnerable?
Clearly, the answer seems to be virtually every seat. But let's break down Conservative-held seats by a couple of factors to see if there's any pattern.
Firstly, let's look at their probability of retaining seats compared to their winning margin in 2019:
There are a handful of exceptions, but generally speaking the Conservatives are expected to lose virtually every seat where their majority is under 15,000. For seats with a majority between 15,000-25,000 they face a battle to retain them. Only when the winning margin last time was over 25,000 last time are the Conservatives fairly safe.
Even then, there is the case of North West Cambridgeshire where Labour are favourites to overturn a 25,983 majority held by Shailesh Vara. Meanwhile in Stevenage Stephen McPartland earned a 8,562 majority in 2019 but is only 0.3% likely to retain his seat. This is the lowest probably of any Conservative-held seat.
Now let's see if there is any geographical pattern to the losses:
Even then, there is the case of North West Cambridgeshire where Labour are favourites to overturn a 25,983 majority held by Shailesh Vara. Meanwhile in Stevenage Stephen McPartland earned a 8,562 majority in 2019 but is only 0.3% likely to retain his seat. This is the lowest probably of any Conservative-held seat.
Now let's see if there is any geographical pattern to the losses:
Somewhat surprisingly, it is the Conservatives' Scottish seats they are most likely to hold. In fact, it is the only region where they are expected to hold more than half (55.1%).
At the other end, it is the two regions furthest north in England - North East and North West - where the Conservatives may lose most heavily. They are expected to keep hold of just 11.2% and 11.5% of those seats, respectively.
In the more rural areas such as South East, South West and East of England the Conservatives are performing relatively okay. This feeds the narrative that they are set to shed the 'red wall' seats they took from Labour in 2019.
Summary
Our seat projections have painted a grim picture for the Conservatives, but looking further into the data shows just exactly how bad it is.
There are numerous big names set to be out of a job, and barely any seats can be considered a safe win for the Conservatives, a pattern that is totally unlike anything from previous elections. Seats with huge majorities are unsurprisingly a bit safer, but even then it is no guarantee.
It could end up going better than feared for the Conservatives, with a respectable defeat a not-impossible outcome. But utter annihilation is just as plausible a scenario. Further slips in the polls could make this even more likely come election day.
At the other end, it is the two regions furthest north in England - North East and North West - where the Conservatives may lose most heavily. They are expected to keep hold of just 11.2% and 11.5% of those seats, respectively.
In the more rural areas such as South East, South West and East of England the Conservatives are performing relatively okay. This feeds the narrative that they are set to shed the 'red wall' seats they took from Labour in 2019.
Summary
Our seat projections have painted a grim picture for the Conservatives, but looking further into the data shows just exactly how bad it is.
There are numerous big names set to be out of a job, and barely any seats can be considered a safe win for the Conservatives, a pattern that is totally unlike anything from previous elections. Seats with huge majorities are unsurprisingly a bit safer, but even then it is no guarantee.
It could end up going better than feared for the Conservatives, with a respectable defeat a not-impossible outcome. But utter annihilation is just as plausible a scenario. Further slips in the polls could make this even more likely come election day.