Yesterday we updated our General Election simulator with the latest odds, and the result can be viewed here. The only change to the method is that we've taken odds from three bookmakers - William Hill, BetFred and Ladbrokes - rather than just the latter.
One of the biggest battlegrounds of the upcoming election is Scotland, with the SNP seeing its support soar to levels that could scarcely have been imagined even a few months ago. Some polls have predicted that the SNP are set to gain upwards of 50 seats, however our previous predictions have continually stayed lower than that, with the previous update to the model suggesting that the high-30s would be a more realistic total.
So, how do the seats break down? Below is a histogram of the SNP win likelihood across each seat in Scotland:
Total SNP seats
Below are the results for the SNP after our usual multiple simulations:
Current SNP seats
Given how many seats the party are set to gain, it is no surprise that the ones they already have are pretty much nailed-on certainties, with the least likely being Na h-Eileanan an Iar, which has a meagre 98.6% chance of staying with the SNP.
If we say that anything above 90% is all but certain to go the way of the SNP, then almost half of the remaining seats all into this category. Unsurprisingly, it includes the seat of Gordon, where former SNP leader Alex Salmond is standing. More noteworthy are the number of former Labour strongholds which are now leaning heavily towards an SNP victory, such as Stirling, Ochil & South Perthshire and many Glasgow seats. Danny Alexander, a senior Lib Dem figure, also sees his seat in this group, as does retiring MP Sir Menzies Campbell.
Of the remaining seats, the SNP are still comfortable favourites in the majority, which we'll class as those where the SNP's chance of victory is between 75-90%.
Former chancellor and part badger Alastair Darling's seat of Edinburgh South West is likely to go to the SNP after he stands down. But the biggest eyebrow-raisers are the seats of Paisley & Renfrewshire South and Ross, Skye & Lochaber, where Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander and former Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy are both expected to lose their seats. In the former case, this might see Mhairi Black become the youngest-ever MP in the UK, aged just 20.
If we say that seats where the SNP chance of winning is between 25-75% are the ones up in the air, then a surprisingly small proportion of Scotland's 59 seats fall into this category - 14 (if we include Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk, which is at 24.7%), an indicator of how strong the SNP are positioned now.
Many of the marginal seats are in the borders, suggesting this is where both Labour and the SNP should focus their attentions. A key scalp the SNP would love to claim is that of Jim Murphy, head of the Scottish Labour Party and MP for East Renfrewshire. In this seat the SNP are placed as neck-and-neck with Labour, although the most recent Ashcroft poll suggests the SNP are in fact leading. However, since this poll was conducted the day after Nicola Sturgeon had performed admirably in the BBC leaders' debate, this may be unreliable.
Given that Murphy has overseen Labour's collapse in Scotland, his position as leader will surely be already under question, but if he loses such a safe Labour seat (Labour since 1997, and the Labour-SNP gap was 41.9% in 2010) then his position will surely become untenable.
Orkney & Shetland
Clearly, SNP-fever has a latitudinal limit.
Even though our last update seemed to demonstrate a huge upturn in SNP support, it still seems to have underestimated the number of seats Sturgeon's party is set to win in May. Perhaps this update has done the same, and in fact they will claim even more than the high-40s our current results suggest.
It will be fascinating to see if the Labour claims that SNP seats will cause a second Cameron term will come true, as it is clear that the SNP will be major players in the post-election ruck for power.
Given that the SNP have emphatically stated they will vote against a Conservative Queen's speech, it seems the only way that SNP votes equal Conservative votes will be if Labour decide they would rather see a minority Conservative government than work with those north of the border.
Full list of seats
The seats are listed in order of likelihood of an SNP win. The party listed in brackets is the current holder of the seat.
99.5% - Banff & Buchan (SNP)
99.5% - Moray (SNP)
99.4% - Angus (SNP)
99.4% - Dundee East (SNP)
98.8% - Perth & North Perthshire (SNP)
98.6% - Na h-Eileanan an Iar (SNP)
98.4% - Dundee West (LAB)
98.3% - Argyll & Bute (LIB)
97.5% - Falkirk (IND)
97.0% - Ochil & South Perthshire (LAB)
96.1% - Glasgow North (LAB)
95.7% - Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East (LAB)
95.7% - North Ayrshire & Arran (LAB)
95.5% - Gordon (LIB)
95.4% - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LIB)
95.2% - Glasgow South (LAB)
95.2% - Kilmarnock & Loudoun (LAB)
94.9% - Glasgow East (LAB)
94.8% - Edinburgh East (LAB)
94.6% - Midlothian (LAB)
94.5% - Stirling (LAB)
94.2% - Livingston (LAB)
94.0% - West Dunbartonshire (LAB)
93.9% - Glasgow Central (LAB)
93.6% - Lanark & Hamilton East (LAB)
93.6% - North East Fife (LIB)
91.9% - Aberdeen North (LAB)
90.9% - Glasgow South West (LAB)
90.9% - West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine (LIB)
90.6% - Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock (LAB)
90.1% - Motherwell & Wishaw (LAB)
90.0% - Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (LIB)
89.8% - Airdrie & Shotts (LAB)
89.1% - East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow (LAB)
89.1% - Ross, Skye & Lochaber (LIB)
88.6% - Edinburgh South West (LAB)
88.6% - Linlithgow & East Falkirk (LAB)
85.9% - Aberdeen South (LAB)
85.7% - Inverclyde (LAB)
84.5% - Glasgow North West (LAB)
82.0% - Edinburgh West (LIB)
81.9% - Paisley & Renfrewshire South (LAB)
80.1% - East Dunbartonshire (LIB)
78.8% - Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (LAB)
73.9% - Paisley & Renfrewshire North (LAB)
72.5% - Glenrothes (LAB)
72.1% - Edinburgh North & Leith (LAB)
71.7% - Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill (LAB)
70.8% - Central Ayrshire (LAB)
68.3% - East Lothian (LAB)
53.9% - Dumfries & Galloway (LAB)
50.6% - Edinburgh South (LAB)
49.7% - East Renfrewshire (LAB)
45.9% - Dunfermline & West Fife (LAB)
36.7% - Rutherglen & Hamilton West (LAB)
36.0% - Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (CON)
28.1% - Glasgow North East (LAB)
24.7% - Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (LIB)
7.8% - Orkney & Shetland (LIB)