Last time we looked at how tactical voting can work in a proportional system, specifically how anti-Brexit voters can coordinate to reduce the number of Brexit party MEPs in Scotland.
In this article we extend this analysis to England and Wales.
The Game Is A Foot |
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by Dr Adrian Worton
Last time we looked at how tactical voting can work in a proportional system, specifically how anti-Brexit voters can coordinate to reduce the number of Brexit party MEPs in Scotland. In this article we extend this analysis to England and Wales.
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by Dr Adrian Worton
As everybody will be aware, this is the week of the European Elections. With the UK initially expected to leave the EU in March (and currently set to leave in autumn), this has been a very unusual campaign. The country's ruling party - the Conservatives - are fearing finishing as low as sixth, whilst a completely newly-formed party appears set to win the most votes and seats on Thursday. by Dr Adrian Worton
Is it really the end of this snap General Election? Yes, we are finally there. And in this post we are going to simulate our General Election model one last time to give our final predictions. We will give party-by-party estimates, individual predictions for each part of the UK, and we will see how our comparisons measure up to elsewhere. At the bottom of this page you can download the official TGIAF Election Dossier, a document which contains our predictions - for the election as a whole, as well as for every constituency. And don't forget, tonight we will be covering the election live here with our innovative analysis. by Dr Adrian Worton
We are just three days away from the 2017 General Election (I know, it feels like the campaign has been going on forever), and some of you will be planning to stay up all night and follow the results as they come in. Well, we are going to be covering the election live, as we did in 2015, on TGIAF! We will be using our 2017 General Election model to give predictions and to signify where the interesting results lie.
by Dr Adrian Worton
In this article we are going to take a departure from looking specifically at our General Election model, which is based on bookies’ odds, and instead look at the numbers from the previous election. Specifically, we are going to consider the vote share. By building a very simple model using the 2015 election, we can estimate how many seats each party will get in 2017 for various scenarios. You can find an editable version of this model in the Appendix at the end of this article. by Dr Adrian Worton
We are looking at how a Progressive Alliance (generally, parties opposed to hard Brexit) can prevent a Conservative majority. Last time we looked at the south of England, an area which is dominated by Conservative-held seats. This time, we look at the traditional Labour heartlands in the north of England. by Dr Adrian Worton
This week we are looking at how a Progressive Alliance can prevent a Conservative majority by coordinating together to win enough seats for a majority. Last time we looked at the arithmetic of such an undertaking, and defined which seats should be considered already safe. We found that of 284 seats that aren't safe, the Progressive Alliance would need to win 238 in order to outnumber the Conservatives and related parties. We are now going to look at each region of the country to see where the key battles are. In this article, we are going to look at all the regions in the south of England. by Dr Adrian Worton
Last week we unveiled our new-and-improved General Election 2017 model. Our first look at its output suggests that the Conservatives are heading towards a huge majority, which is consistent with many predictions. It is apparent to most observers that the best bet the opposition parties have of preventing this is to coordinate together in what has been termed a 'Progressive Alliance'. In this article, we use our model to look at the arithmetic of such a victory. We will follow this up with a region-by-region analysis of how this can be achieved. by Dr Adrian Worton
A fortnight ago, UK Prime Minister Theresa May called a snap General Election. Her intention to do was deliberately kept top secret in order to gain an advantage over opponents. Unfortunately, it also means that we were caught out; whilst our 2015 model allowed for detailed analysis, we had significant upgrades planned for a presumed 2020 election. However, we have been able to make some small tweaks to present a new-and-improved version for this year! In this article we will explain how it is calculated, and present our first set of results. |
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